Thursday, February 28, 2008

MD - WF Notes

NCAA Chances: 85%
Projected Record Heading into NCAA: 21 - 12

Gritty. Huge win. Season saving win.

Almost the story of the game: 19 turnovers for the starting five; all had three or more. I can't say that I can remember a college team having back-to-back dribble off the foot turnovers before tonight.

This team needs to realize that making the extra pass to Hayes for a spot up three is never a bad idea.

The traveling call on Vasquez with five minutes to play was a horrible call.

Interesting stat from Gminski: No team has ever made the NCAA with an RPI greater than 63; MD's was 68 heading into the game.

Gist: 31 pts, 11 boards, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. . . played his best when it mattered the most. . . has made 8 of his last 14 three-point attempts over the past seven games - after having made 10 of 42 previously.

Vasquez: 24 pts, 8 dimes, 4 boards, 4 turns. . . 2 for 6 from distance actually increased his 3 point shooting percentage in ACC play. . . has scored over 20 points in six of the last ten games. . . has made 21 of his last 63 three-point attempts; has made 56 of his last 100 two-point attempts. . . MD is a better team when he eases up on the three-point trigger and uses penetration to get shots and feeds. . . sixth consecutive game with four or more turns. . . averaging 5.4 turns per game over the last eight. . . seems to have the GW green light to shoot when he wants from distance without repercussions. . . this is easy for GW to remedy. . . establish some freakin' repercussions.

Hayes: 11 points, 3 boards, 0 dimes, and 6 turns. . . has made 19 of his last 43 (44%) over his last ten games. . . on the down side, we learned that he cannot dribble with his left hand. . . the turns were unbelievably careless. . . so much for his assist to turnover ratio. . . we need him to penetrate more often and learn how to draw contact - has only shot 14 FTs over the past ten games (made 12).

Osby: WTF? This guy has disappeared. . . absolutely no confidence. . . his reduction in PT (only 24 minutes) was not due to fouls (zero). . . 0 points on four shots (which were not close misses) and only four boards to go with three turns. . . no blocks. . . MD was a better team tonight with Burney on the floor. . . Least likely sign to be seen at College Park on Sunday against Clemson: "Fear the Cornrows". . . It is a lock that the Fro will be back on Sunday Night. - Late Update: Just heard that he was ill; MD needs a quick recovery.

Milbourne: 23 minutes, 2 points (on two attempts), six boards, and five fouls. . . MD is a better team when he gets more looks offensively. . . has made 10 of his last 18 three-point attempts. . . stellar on the defensive end.

Burney: Solid game. . . when he gets the ball two feet from the basket, he needs to think throw down instead of kick out. . . needs to learn how to hedge. . . sensational blocked dunk that led to a half-court Vasquez to Gist dunk on the other end. . . can shoot with his left hand; something Osby cannot do.

Solid contibutions from Bowie (16 minutes) and Tucker (10 minutes).

The 46 minutes of bench play was a welcome change and had a positive affect on the defensive intensity throughout the game.

Scenarios:
23 - 11 (win out and win the ACC tourny): 4 Seed
22 - 12 (win out and lose in the ACC Championship): 6 Seed
21 - 12 (win out and lose in the ACC semifinals): 8 Seed
21 - 13 (win one of next two; win TH and FR at ACC): 10 Seed
20 - 13 (several possibilities): 11 Seed
19 - 13 (win one of next two; first round loss): NIT


Wednesday, February 27, 2008

GW Countdown #11 and #12

#11:

1997:
Final USA Today Ranking: 32
Record: 21 - 11
ACC: 9 - 7 (fourth)
ACC First Round: Beat Clemson by 15
ACC Second Round: Lost to NC State by 7
NCAA Seed: 5
NCAA Round 1: Lost to College of Charleston by 9
NCAA Champion: Arizona
- Booth (Sr): 20 - 8 - 3 - ACC1 -- NBA (2 years, 45 gp, 3 ppg, 2 rpg, 1 apg, $2.1M in career earnings)
- Profit (So): 13 - 5 - 2 - ACC3 -- NBA (4 years, 135 gp, 3 ppg, 2 rpg, 1 apg, $2.9M in career earnings)
- Jasikevicious (Jr): 11 - 3 - 3
- Ekezie (So): 10 - 7 - 1
- Elliot (Jr): 9 - 6 - 1
- Stokes (So): 8 - 3 - 4
- Watkins (So): 8 - 2 - 0

#12:

1996:
Final USA Today Ranking: Unranked (outside the top 46)
Record: 17 - 13
ACC: 8 - 8 (fourth)
ACC First Round: Beat Duke by 13
ACC Second Round: Lost to GT by 5
NCAA Seed: 7
NCAA Round 1: Lost to Santa Clara by 12 (Nash)
NCAA Champion: Kentucky
- Rhodes (Sr): 17 - 6 - 3 - ACC2
- Booth (Jr): 15 - 8 - 2 - ACC3 -- NBA (2 years, 45 gp, 3 ppg, 2 rpg, 1 apg, $2.1M in career earnings)
- Simpkins (Sr): 12 - 2 - 4
- Lucas (Sr): 11 - 5 - 2
- Hipp (Sr): 7 - 3 - 2
- Profit (Fr): 6 - 3 - 1 -- NBA (4 years, 135 gp, 3 ppg, 2 rpg, 1 apg, $2.9M in career earnings)
- Elliot (So): 5 - 3 - 0

Note: The NBA statistics and salary information is from basketball-reference.com. It was valid as of March, 2008.

Monday, February 25, 2008

GW Countdown #13 and #14

#13:

2005:
Final USA Today Ranking: Unranked
Record: 19 - 13
ACC: 7 - 9
ACC First Round: Lost to Clemson by 12
NIT Round 1: Beat Oral Roberts by 13
NIT Round 2: Beat Davidson by 15
NIT Round 3: Beat TCU by 12
NIT Round 4: Lost to South Carolina by 8
NCAA Champion: North Carolina
- Caner-Medley (Jr): 16 - 6 - 2 - ACC3
- McCray (Jr): 14 - 4 - 3 -- NBA (1 year, 5 gp, 0 ppg, 0 rpg, 0 apg, $161K in career earnings)
- Gilchrist (Jr): 14 - 5 - 5
- Garrison (Jr): 10 - 7 - 1
- Ibekwe (So): 8 - 6 - 1
- Jones (So): 7 - 3 - 1
- Strawberry (So): 7 - 2 - 1 -- NBA (1 year, 20 gp, 3 ppg, 1 rpg, 1 apg, $427K in career earnings)

#14:

1990:
Final AP Ranking: Unranked
Record: 19 - 14
ACC: 6 - 8 (fifth)
ACC First Round: Lost to Duke by 20
NIT First Round: Beat UMass by 10
NIT Second Round: Lost at PSU by 2
NCAA Champion: UNLV
- Mustaf (Sr): 19 - 8 - 2 - ACC3 -- NBA (4 years, 179 gp, 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 1 apg, $5M in career earnings)
- Massenburg (Sr): 18 - 10 - 1 - ACC2 -- NBA (15 years, 683 gp, 6 ppg, 4 rpg, $11M in career earnings)
- Williams (So): 13 - 4 - 5 -- NBA (13 years, 708 gp, 12 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 apg, $35M in career earnings)
- Burns (Fr): 4 - 3 - 0 -- NBA (1 year, 23 gp, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, $1.6M in career earnings)

Note: The NBA statistics and salary information is from basketball-reference.com. It was valid as of March, 2008.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

MD - Miami Notes

NCAA Tournament Chances: 75%
NBA Chances: Vasquez (mid first rounder in 2009)
Projected Record Heading into Tournament: 21 - 12 (at WF on Thursday will be the first of four consecutive wins)
Projected Seed: 7

This team looks tired.

If the season ended today, Maryland would be NIT-bound.

Vasquez is shooting 28% from 3-point range in ACC play.

Hayes is shooting 44%.

Gist and Osby have taken way too many fade-away shots over the past two weeks. Gist seems to be timid in taking it to the rack and avoids contact unnecessarily. Teams have gone to tape school on Osby and have taken away his game by pushing him farther out when he catches the ball in the half-court set. Osby with the ball eight or more feet from the basket is the opposite of a scoring threat.

Gist is struggling to play with his back to the basket; he is in desperate need of a drop-step move from the block.

Why did it take 28 freakin' games to discover Jerome Burney? He had 14 consecutive DNPs (coaches decision) heading into today's game. He played very well in twelve minutes and is a better option defensively than Shane Walker.

I think we have seen the last of Dave Neal - addition by subtraction.


Friday, February 22, 2008

GW Countdown #15 and #16

#15

2006:
Final USA Today Ranking: Unranked
Record: 19 - 13
ACC: 8 - 8
ACC First Round: Beat GT by 18
ACC Second Round: Lost to BC by 14
NIT First Round: Lost to Manhattan by 3
NCAA Champion: Florida
- Caner-Medley (Sr): 15 - 6 - 2 - ACC3
- McCray (Sr): 15 - 4 - 4 -- NBA (1 year, 5 gp, 0 ppg, 0 rpg, 0 apg, $161K in career earnings)
- Ibekwe (Jr): 11 - 7 - 1
- Jones (Jr): 11 - 3 - 2
- Strawberry (Jr): 10 - 3 - 4 -- NBA (1 year, 20 gp, 3 ppg, 1 rpg, 1 apg, $427K in career earnings)
- Gist (So): 8 - 5 - 1
- Garrison (Sr): 8 - 5 - 1

#16:

1991:
Final AP Ranking: Unranked
Record: 16 - 12 (Banned from NCAA Tournament)
ACC: 5 - 9 (seventh)
NCAA Champion: Duke
- Williams (Jr): 19 - 5 - 5 -- NBA (13 years, 708 gp, 12 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 apg, $35M in career earnings)
- Roe (Sr): 18 - 6 - 3 - ACC3
- Lewis (Sr): 12 - 8 - 1 and 5.1 bpg (second in the nation; ACC record) -- NBA (1 year, 3 gp, 1 ppg, 1 rpg, $200K in career earnings)
- Smith (Jr): 11 - 5 - 1
- McClinton (So): 8 - 4 - 4
- Broadnax (Jr): 8 - 4 - 2
- Burns (So): 8 - 4 - 1 -- NBA (1 year, 23 gp, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, $1.6M in career earnings)

Note: The NBA statistics and salary information is from basketball-reference.com. It was valid as of March, 2008.


Thursday, February 21, 2008

GW Countdown #17 and #18

Gary Williams is in his 19th season as head coach at Maryland. Here is a ranking of his previous 18 seasons. 1992 and 1993 were the only years that MD finished under .500 since he took the job in 1989.

The NBA salary information below is from basketball-reference.com.

Case and point #1 on why MD needs to mix in a course on decision analysis for next year's curriculum: The career earnings for Walt Williams noted below is less than the amount of money he opted out of in Miami in 1996 - only to sign for the league minimum with the Raptors. Regardless, Williams' reverse throw-down alley-oop dunks against UNC are still near the top of the list on all-time great MD highlights.

#17

1992:
Final AP Ranking: Unranked
Record: 14 - 15 (Banned from NCAA Tournament)
ACC: 5 - 11 (eighth)
ACC First Round: Lost to Duke by 7
NCAA Champion: Duke
- Williams (Sr): 27 - 6 - 4 - ACC1 -- NBA (13 years, 708 gp, 12 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 apg, $35M in career earnings)
- Burns (Jr): 16 - 7 - 1 -- NBA (1 year, 23 gp, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, $1.6M in career earnings)
- McClinton (Jr): 12 - 5 - 5
- Smith (Sr): 10 - 7 - 2
- Broadnax (Sr): 9 - 4 - 3
- Kerwin (Jr): 4 - 5 - 1

#18 (worst season):

1993:
Final AP Ranking: Unranked
Record: 12 - 16 (Did not make NIT or NCAA Tournament)
ACC: 2 - 14 (eighth)
ACC First Round: Lost to UNC by 36
NCAA Champion: UNC
- Burns (Sr): 19 - 9 - 2 -- NBA (1 year, 23 gp, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, $1.6M in career earnings)
- McClinton (Sr): 16 - 5 - 6
- Rhodes (Fr): 14 - 5 - 3
- Hipp (Fr): 11 - 5 - 3
- Kerwin (Sr): 7 - 5 - 1
- Lucas (Fr): 4 - 2 - 0

Note: The NBA statistics and salary information is from basketball-reference.com. It was valid as of March, 2008.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

MD - VT Notes

NCAA Tournament Chances: 90%
Projected Record Heading into the Tournament: 21 - 12 (I am confident that they will win 3 of their next 4)
Projected Seed: 8
Sweet Sixteen Chances: 4%
NBA: Gist (late second round); Vasquez (mid first rounder in 2009)

Painful.

3 points in a 14 minute stretch; scoring one FG in 23 possessions. That is fifth-grade girls basketball-esque.

Uninspired.

VT lost by 39 at Chapel Hill on Saturday.

There is a big difference between the talent levels of Cliff Tucker and Jason McAlpin.

Nine minutes of cleaning up throw-up video.

Question of the Night: How many people does it take to clean up vomit?

Dorenzo Hudson will not be soon forgotten at Comcast.

Player A: 17 ppg, 7 apg, 5 rpg
Player B: 17 ppg, 4 apg, 5 rpg

Player A is Vasquez this year; Player B is Steve Francis in his one year in College Park (1999).

I left out the 4.3 tpg for Player A.

Hayes has made 4 of his last 24 shots to go along with 9 turnovers in his past three games. Look no further than those stats for the most significant reason for MD's downslide.

Hayes needs to keep shooting for MD to have a chance at making it to the Sweet 16; he is too good of a shooter to have this last much longer.

Hayes will have 18 points and be named player of the game in a win at Miami on Saturday.

Answer: Three team managers, three referees, two janitors, and one lady with a mop.

I would have taken "less than two team managers" in Vegas.


Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Milbourne Dunk

http://misterirrelevant.com/index.php/2008/02/17/landon-milbourne-dunks-on-florida-state/

Milbourne's stock has risen over the past week just as much as Hayes' has fallen.

This was the best dunk of the year by a player not named Gist.

The links below are two of Gist's better dunks this year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9y82BkBZtzA&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktqCL2XiO8o&feature=related


MD - Duke Notes

NCAA Likelihood: 95%
Projected Seed: 7
Projected Record prior to NCAA: 21 - 12
2008 NBA Draft: Gist (mid second round)
2009 NBA Draft: Vasquez (mid first round)

There had to be a better way for ESPN to start the game than showing us a close-up of Mike Patrick's nostrils for close to a minute.

Gary Williams looks more and more like Dennis Hopper in Hoosiers each game. Watch the movie, listen to the "We are going to run the Picket Fence" line, turn on a MD game, look at GW's profile. . . case closed.

Osby is becoming skilled in walking on a drop step move (spinning towards the lane when he gets the ball on the right block) and getting away with it; did it twice last night.

MD goes to Osby on the right block for a hook shot to start almost every game. Osby makes that shot almost every game.

Duke's defensive intensity was the story of the game.

Vasquez picked up his dribble too often in our half-court set.

MD had four possessions down 54 - 51 and couldn't take advantage.

Hayes had a very bad night.

Vasquez had a very solid game overall; except for 3 WTFs and a very bad haircut. It was funny when Vitale and Patrick went off on his hot-dogging when they didn't realize that he was stripped of the freakin' ball; not showboating with a no-look pass. Vasquez's feed to Gist on the long bounce pass on the break was one of his best passes of the year. He is a first team All ACC player if the season ended today. Gist is borderline first-team.

I don't care what Vitale thinks of Andy Pettitte.

MD will not win games when they give up so many open looks from 3 point range (Duke was 12 for 25).

I have never seen someone miss back-to-back dunks and get both rebounds before Gist did it last night.

Neal should not be shooting the ball. Period. One good discovery last night; Zoubek is clearly the slowest man in the ACC (maybe the entire East Coast); not Neal. Braxton DuPree has to be sitting on the bench wondering why his PT has been taken by Neal. Makes no sense.

There has to be a way to run our offense and go inside out to get Hayes open spot up looks.

Tucker has developed into a solid contributor - couldn't believe he didn't get the call when he was fouled by Nelson on that drive.


MD - BC Notes

NCAA Tournament Chances: 90%
NBA Chances (to play at least 82 games in career): Vasquez (99%), Gist (90%), Osby (15%), and Hayes (10%; will put up big numbers in his senior year without Vasquez).

- Vasquez had the best game of his career: 25 points, 8 assists, 6 boards, 2 steals, 9 for 14 from the floor. . . only three turn-overs. The only negative was the fact that he continues to struggle at the FT line late in games. He even had a WTF that ended up being a drained three off the dribble on the baseline.

- Gist was awesome. The blocked shot highlight will be played back on ESPN all night. . . along with his reverse hammer flush. 23 points, 7 boards, and a block on 9 for 11 shooting. His only negative was a big negative in that he allowed Oates to have a career night with 21 points and 5 open threes (8 for 8 shooting; how does Coach Skinner not let this guy keep chucking it all night?).

- Hayes was quiet offensively with five points and five assists. . . however, he hit a HUGE three with under a minute left in the game to seal it. He only took four shots in 36 minutes.

- Osby had 9 points, 5 boards, and 5 blocks. . . very solid game. . . although he was much less effective on the block tonight.

- Milbourne had three points; but only took two shots in 31 minutes. . . very solid defensive night.

- The starters averaged 33 minutes each.

- 54%, 52%, 56%, and 52%. . . four consecutive ACC games with MD shooting over 50% from the floor. . . can't remember the last time that happened.

Eight games remaining:

- NCST -- Win
- at Duke -- Loss
- FSU -- Win
- VT -- Win
- at Miami -- Loss
- at Wake -- Win
- Clemson -- Win
- at UVA -- Loss

That is 10 and 6 in the ACC; 20 and 11 overall; headed into the ACC tournament. They have an outside shot at 11 and 5 (with a win at Miami). Unbelievable thought just four weeks ago.

It is looking like a #7 seed in the dance.

GW deserves a ton of credit for turning this team around.


MD - Duke Notes

- NCAA Chances: 20% (this will drop to 5% if they lose to UVA at home on Wednesday; something I don't think will happen)
- NBA Chances (to play at least 82 games): Gist (60%), Vasquez (40%), and Osby (2%).

- Stat of the game: 22 Turnovers. Surprisingly, Vasquez only had two. The Vegas over/under was 5.

- Tough to lose a game at home when MD shoots 54% from the floor.

- MD's inbounds plays from under the basket are a freakin' circus. Year after year, we end up relying on the Hail Mary. In the past, it didn't hurt; it just made us look stupid. Tonight, it made us look stupid and it hurt with two turnovers and two fast break Duke run-outs.

- Dave Neal's missed lay-up was painful to watch. He did have a nice hook in the first half; however, Tim Brando gave the credit for that shot to "John Neal".

- 24 assists for MD (on 31 FGs); 9 for Duke (on 32 FGs). It seemed MD could get what they wanted, whenever they wanted on the inside. Great interior passing by Vasquez (7 assists) and Hayes (9 assists).

- Henderson and Nelson were a combined 19 for 31. The defense on them (particularly help-side on penetrations) was less than stellar.

- Vasquez had another excellent game. He has significantly lowered his WTF average over the past two games (The number of times I say "What the F__ is he doing?" during the game).

- Osby continues to impress. His improvement this season has been nothing short of amazing. He went for 20 and 15. This means Hansborough will have 30 and 20 next week against Duke.

- Duke is better than UNC; however, neither will make the final four.


MD - UNC Notes

Chances of Making the Tournament: 3% (up from 0.00001% earlier in the day)
NBA Chances (to play at least 82 games in career): Vasquez (40%) and Gist (25%)

Sweetest win for MD in the Dean Dome since February 20, 1986.

This was a game that I would have bet the house on UNC to cover the 19-point spread.

MD simply wouldn't die. Down by four with a minute and change left and Vasquez hits a huge shot in the lane to cut it in half; then, hits two clutch free throws.

Weird game commentary - as can be expected when Musburger and Lavin get the call. You had to like the comments regarding Ted Williams being among the 2 million living Americans with a Williams surname. These guys must be the only two people in America who were not aware that Ted died six years ago. They must have also missed the news clip soon thereafter when Ted's son jammed Ted's head into a pickle jar and sent it to a cryonics lab for storage.

Maybe, they are counting Teddy Ballgame as still living based on their belief in cryonics. Call my crazy, I just don't see Ted Williams playing again.

Brent was also sharp in the first half when he got mixed up and complimented Ginyard for making a three-pointer for MD (made by Milbourne).

The refs favored Hansborough all game long. That play in the first minutes of the game where he fouled Osby and walked after getting the offensive rebound without either being called set the tone early on.

Gist: Best game of his career. . . 22 and 13. . . clearly outplayed Hansborough in the Dean Dome.

Vasquez: Best game of the season. . . 12 pts, 11 dimes, 6 boards, and 23 shoulder-shrugs during a 50-second post-game interview. . . He may have separated his shoulder if that interview would have gone on any longer. . . 6 turn-overs are to be expected since he is playing out of position on the road against the number one team in the nation.

Osby: Clutch all day long. . . Man among boys in the lane. . . performance was much larger than his stat line of 12 pts and 5 boards. . . shocked that he didn't pick up more than three fouls with his aggressive play. . . if he would have fouled out, Hansborough would have had his way late in the game.

Milbourne: Best game of the season. . . 14 points in key situations.

Hayes: Hit two huge treys. . . still hobbled by the ankle. . . Vasquez needs Hayes back healthy to take over the point duties; that is the only way that Vasquez doesn't break the all-time MD single season record for turn-overs.

Tucker: Best game of the season. . . 8 points in twenty solid minutes.

Four guys with their best game of the season in the same game. Amazing.

I was surprised that Dupree only played one minute.

You had the enjoy the tears flowing from the UNC fans after the game. It is a freakin regular season game. Idiots. UNC has at least two more losses prior to NCAA tournament time. I would bet against UNC making the final four. Their depth after Hansborough, Lawson, and Ellington is average at best. GW showed how you can take away Hansborough and limit Lawson's quickness. If Ellington has an off-night, UNC is beatable.

Story of the game: MD only had ten turn-overs. GW clearly outcoached Roy Williams. UNC should have mixed in a zone defense on a few possessions when Hayes wasn't on the floor. Also, UNC should have pressed MD knowing Vasquez's propensity to turn it over and Lawson's ability to take it away.

The Terps are 2 - 2 in the ACC and 12 - 7 overall. They need to win 7 of their remaining 12 games heading into the ACC tournament to make the NCAA.

American must be thinking about putting UNC on next year's schedule.