Wednesday, January 14, 2009

MD - Miami Notes

Brutal.

Up by 17 with just over 12 minutes left, everyone on the MD bench had to be having flashbacks to the Clemson game last March when MD blew a 20 point lead in the final ten minutes. GW was deliberate with the offense from the 12 minute mark to the five minute mark when Miami cut it to five. You could sense that MD wanted to bleed the clock; I can't fault the strategy. Bowie was able to bail MD out on offense on two separate occasions during that stretch and Miami got hot from distance - red hot on decent defense.

Jack McClinton has murdered Maryland for four straight years. How do you let that guy get an open look on that last shot? Everybody in the gym knew that he was going to run off two picks on that curl; not sure why Neal didn't hedge. If he does switch, Collins gets the ball on the block and gets fouled. Much better scenario.

There were bright spots to come out of this game. First and foremost, watching Adrian freakin' Bowie turn into Isiah Thomas. He was unstoppable (23 pts, 5 boards, 3 assists, and 2 steals). It took Miami 35 minutes to figure out he was left-handed. Slasher.

Vasquez played very well (15 pts, 6 assists, 5 boards, and 2 steals). He had two very good looks in the final seconds and rimmed out on both shots. One of the keys to MD's start was Vasquez penetrating and kicking out for open looks. He focused on getting others involved early. He didn't attempt a FT (leading the nation at 94% with 35 in a row).

Milbourne was solid (8 pts, 7 boards, 4 huge blocks, and a steal). He was signficantly undersized against Miami's front line and was able to disrupt their inside game.

I am not sure why Hayes went to sleep after starting off with five early points. He ended up taking only four shots in 27 minutes. That may be the most significant stat of the game. MD will not win when he is not part of the offense. He needs to figure out how to draw fouls on penetration when he is not getting open shots.

Dave Neal played 25 minutes (1 of 6 from the floor). We could have used Burney in this game - we need him back soon.

When Mosley missed that dunk in the first-half, you had to wonder if those two points would matter at the end. He played 19 minutes and didn't do much statistically. He is still trying to figure out how to score on the college level.

Dupree looks lost out there - absolutely no confidence in his game. His four-foot wide-open hook shot missed by two feet. My remedy? Let Dupree play a few games in the UM intramural league to remember how to dominate a game. Either that or make it a policy that GW is only allowed to scream at him once every ten minutes.

kenpom note: MD is #318 in D1 in the category FTA/FGA (0.29). This underscores MD's problems inside. As a reference, Wake is #8 at 0.49. Tonight: 6 FTA and 57 FGA (0.11).

14 Games remain in the regular season. 12 - 4 (1 - 1) right now.

Sure wins: UVA-H, BC-H, MIA-H, and VT-H
Key games: FSU-A, GT-A, Duke-H, NCST-A, and UVA-A
Sure losses: Duke-A, UNC-A, Clem-A, UNC-H, and WF-H

The absolute best-case scenario is 20 - 10 (9 - 7). Likelihood: 5%.
Next best scenario 19 - 11 (8 - 8). Likelihood: 25%.
18 - 12 (7 - 9): Likelihood: 50%
17 - 13 (6 - 10): Likelihood: 15%
16 - 14 (5 - 11): Likelihood: 5%

Overall Likelihood of making the Tournament: Coin Flip.

Why do I have the feeling that the Morgan State game will ultimately be a killer?