MD - PSU Comments

I am not sure if:

a. PSU is the worst team in major division college basketball.
b. MD just played its best defensive game in the GW era.

I think both could be right.

- PSU was 14 for 68 from the floor (21%)
- PSU was 3 for 27 from distance (11%)
- PSU had six assists and 12 turnovers
- MD had 17 turn-overs and was only 12 for 21 at the line and still won 62 - 39.
- MD's second-best player (Tucker) had zero points.

Someone named Taran Buie was 0 for 9 in thirteen minutes; at some point, you need to dial it down Taran.

Taking away Battle's 7 for 21 masterpiece, the rest of the team was 7 for 47 (15%).

Fifteen percent. I didn't think that was possible for a group of eight D1 players.

What else did we learn tonight?

- Stoglin has a very nice handle on the ball. He is money at the line. He will be playing at the ends of games. Bowie still struggles to bring the ball up court against pressure.

- MD is a significantly better defensive team than last year. Hayes and Vasquez didn't scare many teams on defense. I don't think this year's team has a defensive weak spot; although, they can improve on the defensive glass.

- Padgett played his best game of the year. Very active.

- Williams is still a circus at the FT line. 3 for 9 tonight. Other than that, he was awesome tonight. He is starting to use the rim inside to avoid getting his shot blocked; very Baxter-like in that regard.

- The announcer informed us that Williams was the first all Freshman ACC player since "Jeff" Blake. I thought he was a QB for East Carolina. Steve Blake would disagree with her.

- Gregory is solid. He is showing better range this year on his line-drive jumper that seems to hit the bottom of the net more often than not. He also has surprising throw-down in traffic ability.

- MD is essentially eight deep. Weijs will play some; not much. What happened to Parker? This guy was #42 overall out of HS last year.

13328

NIT Comments

NCAA Tournament Probability: 62%
Predicted number of future NBA players on roster: Zero

Good start to the season. Very competitive losses to #4 Pitt (because of missed FTs) and #16 ILL (because of poor perimeter defense). #37 overall ranking seems right.

It is not "if" but "when" Stoglin moves into the starting PG position and Bowie becomes the sixth man. I think it will happen in mid December.

This team will struggle with turn-overs and three-point shooting all year. Add rebounding when (not if) Williams gets into foul trouble. The team will excel with open-court, fast-paced tempo that is triggered by the full-court press. In other words, a typical GW team. I think the FT shooting issue will get fixed.

Two games with Bobby Knight's commentary was very solid overall. He had a few moments when you had to question his thinking; most notably, he went into a long explanation as to why it is a good idea to make the first and miss the second FT intentionally when you are up by 2 with five seconds left on the clock. Stupid. Last time I checked, it is tough to hit a four-pointer.

He also went a bit overboard on "counting" dribbles. He said Stoglin bounced it 19 times "because I counted" on one possession. I used the DVR to check and it was 13.

Here are a few comments:

- Williams: Best player and clearly the most important player on the team. . . averaging 19 and 12 through five games. . . loss of 20 lbs allows for throwdowns at the rack instead of lay-ins. . . polished inside game. . . still gets a lot of shots blocked. . . could use a lesson from Baxter on using the rim to prevent that from happening. . . only two blocked shots in five games. . . still commits bad fouls. . . has tendency to use left arm to hook opponent on baseline moves. . . will be on the bench with foul trouble quite a bit this season. . . FT shooting will be a problem.

- Tucker: Bobby Knight's favorite player. . . great in the open floor. . . showed a nice mid-range game from the FT area. . . averaging 15, 4 boards, and 3 assists thus far. . . can disappear for long stretches when games slow down.

- Mosley: Averaging 9, 4 boards, and 3 assists. . . seems to get shorter each year. . . 1 for 9 from distance. . . mid-range game seems off compared to last year. . . did I mention that he is under-sized? . . . great overall knowledge of the game. . . I am confident that this is just an early season funk. . . if not, MD is in serious trouble.

- Bowie: 18 assists and 17 turn-overs thus far. . . he is a two that is being disguised as a one. . . not a creator in the half-court set. . . great in the open court. . . defense goes with his offense. . . not able to get open looks for three when he is playing the point. . . shot 41% from distance last year. . . with the lack of other options, MD will need him to get 3 or 4 looks from distance per game.

- Gregory: Great shot blocker. . . plays bigger than his height. . . good catch and shoot mid-range game thus far. . . not a great rebounder. . . good FT shooter who should find a way to play with his back to the basket on offense so that he can get to the line more often.

- Stoglin: Pure scorer. . . best shooter on the team. . . averaging 0.3 assists per game over the last three. . . will not get into the starting line-up until that stat gets fixed. . . easy to understand how he was the second all-time leading scorer in AZ.

Howard: Very impressive against Charleston. . . not so much in the last three games. . . I can't see him playing the point for long stretches.

Weijs: I like what I see so far in limited minutes. . . goes after blocked shots. . . active. . . can finish on the offensive end. . . still far too weak to justify double-digit minutes per game.

Padgett: 4 for 14 at the FT line so far. . . 28.6%. . . has no offensive game beyond dunks off of feeds. . . decent on the defensive end. . . will commit a lot of fouls.

13311

2010 - 2011 Opening Comments

Havoline motor oils protect engines against bad deposits, improves mileage, and helps prevent expensive repairs. It is the only motor oil used by the team of people that contribute to this blog. Highly recommended.

First, I need to post a few comments about Eric Hayes' performance in the three-point shoot-out at last year's Final Four. He dominated the competition. Here is a run-down of his four rounds; Z = Miss; O = Make.

Round 1:
OOOOO OOOOO OOZZO OOZOO OOOZZ = 20 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 24 points

Round 2:
ZOZOO ZOOZO ZOZOZ OOOOO OZZZO = 15 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 19 points

Round 3:
ZOZOZ OZZZO ZZZOO ZZOOO OOZOO = 13 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 17 points

Round 4:
OOOZO ZZZOO OOOOZ OOOOO ZOZOO = 18 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 22 points

Overall: 66 for 100, 16 for 20 on money balls

Amazing performance. I said it for the past three years; MD did not find a way to get him enough shots. He averaged just over four per game for his last three years; should have been 7 or 8. He was 45% last year (4.3 attempts per game).

The great site, "Maryland Basketball: Where are they now?" provided the following information on Hayes and Milbourne:

- Hayes will play for El Leche Río Breogán in Spain; sponsored by El Leche Rio (Milk River).

- Landon Milbourne will play with S.O.M. Boulogne in France.

Grevis is on the Memphis Grizzlies bench. I still have a bet with a reader in the ATL that he will play more than 82 games in his NBA career. Easy money.

Now, a few comments on this year's team:

An East Coast correspondent was at the Terps' practice tonight and said that GW was working extensively on conditioning. Good to hear that. He also said that Jordan Williams will be much improved at the line. I would buy 65% right now and be happy with it.

Looks like the starting five will be:
- Bowie
- Tucker
- Mosley
- Williams
- Gregory

Three freshman will see PT off the bench; Parker, Stoglin, and Howard. Padgett will play a big role filling in for Gregory when he gets in foul trouble. Nine deep.

I have seen predictions anywhere from fifth to seventh in the ACC.

I think Tucker is the most important piece to the puzzle. A big year from him would mean a top 3 finish in the ACC. A down year means bubble time in March.

Lastly, here are a few stats from previous NBA draft combines:

Vasquez (2010):
- Maxed out with ONE rep of 185 on the bench (for comparison, Booker did 22; Schenscher tied Grevis with 1 in 2005)
- Sprint time: 3.48 seconds (Felton was 3.06)
- Agility time: 11.13 seconds (Felton: 10.5)
- 28-inch vertical
- 8.6% body fat (was 6.9% last year)

Milbourne (2010):
- 4 inch differential between height and wingspan (Jay Bilas' favorite stat)
- No other stats available

Gist (2008):
- 9-inch differential between height and wingspan (7'4 span)
- 5 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds
- Agility time: 11.37 seconds
- 35-inch vertical
- 4.8% body fat

Strawberry (2007):
- 1.5-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 21 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds
- Agility time: 10.87 seconds
- 35-inch vertical
- 4.5% body fat

Caner-Medley (2006): He did very well in the combine.
- 17 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.21 seconds
- Agility time: 10.57 seconds
- 36-inch vertical (0.5 inch higher than D-Wade; had to be a typo)
- 9.6% body fat

Gilchrist (2005):
- 8-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 12 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds
- Agility time: 11.48 seconds
- 36.5-inch vertical

Wilcox (2002):
- 5-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 20 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.16 seconds
- Agility time: 11.43 seconds
- 35-inch vertical (max vertical reach of 11'10)

Baxter (2002):
- 7-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 14 reps of 185 on the bench (must of had a bad day)
- Sprint time: 3.21 seconds
- Agility time: 11.77 seconds
- 33-inch vertical (max vertical reach of 11'10)

A few other stats:

- Nate Robinson (43.5) and Vince Carter (43) did well in max vert
- Vasquez's 28 inch vertical put him in the bottom 10%-ile of the database
- Oliver Miller (22%) didn't fare well in the body-fat category
- Dahntay Jones (Duke; 2003) had the lowest in the database (2.6%)
- Sprint times ranged from 2.91 to 3.80.
- Nate Robinson ran a 2.96
- Schenscher ran a 3.47 (0.01 faster than Grevis)
- Agility times ranged from 9.65 to 14.45.

13272

Korie Lucious

To use Grevis' quote from all post-game interviews this season, "words cannot express the feeling" all MD fans had in the six-seconds between his clutch floater to go up by one and the gut wrenching Lucious buzzer beater.

Vasquez had just put MD ahead by one with 35-seconds left on a difficult leaner. He definitely saved his best for last.

Michigan State's shooting stats: 55% FG; 56% 3PFG.
MD's shooting stats: 44% FG; 47% 3PFG.

MD was outrebounded 42 - 24.

Despite those numbers, there was never a moment where you felt that MD wasn't going to come back and win it - even when they were down 72 - 57 with seven minutes left.

I suspect MD will finish #20 to #22 in the final poll. Looking back on it, that is right where expectations were at the beginning of the season. It was a wild ride from the time they lost to William and Mary through today.

Here is my updated top eleven worst loss list.

1. Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook, 24SEP94.
2. Korie Lucious buzzer-beater, 21MAR10.
3. Appalachian State 34 Michigan 32, 01SEP07.
4. Jason Williams erases a 10-point MD lead with 53 seconds left, 27JAN01.
5. Raiders 38 Skins 9, Super Bowl XVIII, 22JAN84.
6. Duke erases MD's 39-17 lead in the Final Four, 31MAR01.
7. OSU 42 Michigan 39, 18NOV06.
8. Webber time-out, 05APR93.
9. Staubach to Tony Hill to keep the Skins home for the holidays, 16DEC79.
10. Indiana 99 MD 64 - last game for King and Buck, 14MAR81.
11. Miami 31 Michigan 30 - after leading 30 - 14 with 5:40 remaining - 106K fans walked out in absolute silence, 17SEP88 (thanks Kevin for adding that one).

Odds on Stewart to Westbrook moving out of the top spot in my lifetime: 1,000,000 to 1.

All-Time top five Terps:
1. Bias
2. Dixon
3. Smith
4. Lucas
5. McMillan

Vasquez goes into the sixth slot.

This is the best opening two-rounds of the NCAA tournament in recent memory. Jimmer Fredette is my new favorite player. Omar Samhan is a close second.

Next year's team will be pre-season #3 or #4 in the ACC. Predicted minute distribution:

- Stoglin (25)
- Bowie (30)
- Tucker (25)
- Mosley (25)
- Williams (30)

- Gregory (25)
- Padgett (20)
- Mychal Parker (20)

Hayes ends his career as the best outside shooter not named Juan Dixon in the GW era. Milbourne finished the season strongly.

=====

13035

Glad I Didn't Fly Back

Damn.

Vasquez had a very bad game. Bad to the point of making you say WTF at least four times. Big time forces - especially on the second to last shot (choosing a step-back, off balance three - airball; over a pass to an open Hayes). Vasquez had a little Kelly Leak in him tonight. 2 for 11 from distance.

Silver lining: Milbourne snapped out of his funk. 15 points, 6 boards, and 5 steals. That, along with the extended rest, could bode well for next week.

Unbelievable to lose a game when you have a +13 in turn-overs (25 - 12). If it was a football game, they would have flashed a stat after the first seven minutes in the second-half stating that GT hasn't advanced the ball past midfield yet. I have never seen a half-court game break-out for such an extended period of time.

Mosley (0 for 7 tonight) would do very well in a 6'5 and under league. Come to think of it, he already did very well in that environment in high school. Great defender. He will learn to pick his spots and use his mid-range game. Tonight, he seemed intent on taking it to the rack and getting denied at the rim.

The best thing about the Jordan Williams vs Derick Favors battle tonight was that we know we get three more years from Williams (who will turn into a 15 and 9 guy next year) and Favors will be playing for Golden State in November.

GT has first-round NCAA exit written all over them.

Overall, the defensive intensity was very solid. Vasquez is at his best when he is driving and either dishing inside, shooting the bank shot runner, or kicking out to Hayes or Tucker. He is at his worst when he falls in love with his three. Tonight was one of those nights.

=====

On a side note, here was the voting for the ACC rookie of the year:

Derrick Favors, Ga Tech 45
Jordan Williams, Maryland 6
Durand Scott, Miami 1
Glen Rice Jr., Ga Tech 1

OK. A few possibilities regarding the Glen Rice Jr. vote.

a. Someone in the media is an idiot, glanced at the ballot, saw GT next to his name, and assumed that he was the guy everyone is talking about.
b. One of the voters saw only one GT game all year (Clemson on 02MAR); Rice went for 17 and 8. He averaged 5 and 1 for the season.
c. Glen Rice Sr. has joined the media.

My guess is c.

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12952

Regular Season Wrap-Up

Havoline Motor Oil has the best synthetic 10W/30 on the market. Not up for debate.

RPI: 17

Projected Seed Scenarios:
--> 23 - 8 (first-round ACC loss): 7 seed
--> 24 - 8 (second-round ACC loss): 6 seed
--> 25 - 8 (championship ACC loss): 4 seed
--> 26 - 7 (ACC Tournament Champs): 3 seed

Entering ACC play, expectations were basically just make the tournament. Now, everything has been slotted up; the final words on the season will be:

- First round NCAA loss: Huge disappointment
- Second round NCAA loss: Disappointing season
- Sweet Sixteen loss: This is the expectation; anything beyond is house money.
- Elite Eight loss: Great season.
- Final Four Appearance: Start campaigning for Gary Williams to be elected into the Hall of Fame immediately. Vasquez will be a top five player in the history of the program.

I can't see any possibility of winning a Final Four game. However, I can see a Final Four appearance as a viable outcome (albeit small; 3% likelihood).

There is no way Vasquez doesn't get ACC POY after the events of the past five days. Clutch sequence when the UVA game was getting out of control - Vasquez nailed three consecutive three-pointers to keep MD in the game until the Tony Bennett meltdown. Speaking of which, I agreed with his first complaint (ref never should have called a travel when there was no advantage gained given the game situation). However, his second complaint (which set off Mount Bennett), was a clear block. Nice way to take the game away from your seniors.

Just checked the two preeminent mock NBA draft sites:

DraftExpress.com: Vasquez is not projected among the top 60 (undrafted status).
NBADraft.net: They have Vasquez going #29 in round 1 to Memphis.

I am not sure why Milbourne is still listed on NBADraft.net at #51. They must not have watched the past six games (33% FG, 6 ppg, 4 rpg). He is completely lost mentally. Zero confidence in what once was perhaps the best mid-range game in the ACC. When he is not taking the fifteen-foot jumper, it is debatable if MD is better off with him seeing reduced minutes (if they can afford to go with a smaller line-up; which will not be the case against GT on Friday night).

It is a tribute to Roy Williams that it is a foregone conclusion that UNC will get hammered on Thursday night. It is tough to find a poorer performance by a more highly rated collection of players coming out of high school. They have been "coached down".

It is time to give Bowie more minutes; lots more. He seems to have found his game and is a huge upgrade defensively whenever he is on the court.

Gary Williams will win ACC coach of the year. Only debate is who will finish second.

I am not sure why people are mentioning Jordan Williams as ACC rookie of the year. Favors should be the unanimous selection.

Here are the ACC players in the mock drafts (with overall selection projections; DraftExpress first; then NBADraft.net):

- Favors - GT (3 | 6)
- Aminu - WF (5 | 8)
- Davis - UNC (7 | not listed)
- Alabi - FSU (16 | 26)
- Lawal - GT (30 | 17)
- Singler - Duke (34)
- Booker - Clem (39 | 35)
- Thompson - UNC (48 | 58)
- Collins - Mia (58 | 33)
- Scheyer - Duke (59 | not listed)
- Vasquez (not listed | 29)
- Milbourne (not listed | 51)

Hold on. The fact that Scheyer is included on the DraftExpress list is a clear indication that the author is a Duke grad. There is no freakin' way Scheyer gets selected in June. That explains the omission of Vasquez.

I still have Vasquez's odds at being in an NBA uniform all next year at 85%.

I highly recommend Bill Simmons' Book on Basketball - absolute must read. In his 1974 season review, he wrote about Moses Malone and brought up his 1974 decision to change his mind on Maryland and go to the ABA. Imagine Malone playing with Lucas, Davis, Gibson, Boston, Sheppard, etc. Imagine Malone playing with any four guys on a college level as a senior. A final four appearance would have been a lock. Worst turn of events to happen to Lefty prior to 1986.

=====

12863

Vasquez - ACC POY

RPI: 25
Record against Top 50 RPI: 4 - 3
Bad losses: William and Mary (60) and Cincy (58)
Seeding possibilities:
- 26 - 7 (win out); 2 seed
- 25 - 8; 3 seed
- 24 - 9; 4 seed
- 23 - 9; 5 seed
- 22 - 9; 7 seed (worst-case scenario)

Albert King (1980)
Len Bias (1985)
Len Bias (1986)
Joe Smith (1995)
Juan Dixon (2002)
Grevis Vasquez (2010)

POY is a lock barring a total meltdown in the final two games.

Here is the first team all ACC (conference game stats) projection:

- Vasquez (22 ppg, 6.9 apg, 44% FG, 83% FT, 40% 3PFG, 2.0 assist to TO ratio)
- Scheyer (19 ppg, 4.6 apg, 39% FG, 85% FT, 38% 3PFG, 2.0 spg, 2.1 ratio)
- Singler (18 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 41% FG, 42% 3PFG)
- Delaney (22 ppg, 4.8 apg, 84% FT, 1.5 spg, 1.4 ratio)
- Aminu (16 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 44% FG, 1.6 spg, 1.7 bpg)

Second team:

- Booker (16 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 52% FG, 1.8 bpg)
- Landesberg (18 ppg, 44% FG, 87% FT)
- Nolan Smith (17 ppg, 43% FG, 81% FT)
- Favors (11 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg)
- Alabi (11 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.0 bpg)

MD has put together impressive team stats:

- First in scoring (78; Duke is next at 73)
- First in FG% (46.3; GT is next at 43.8)
- First in 3PFG (42.5; GT is next at 38.4)
- First in APG (16.8; BC is next at 13.6)
- First in assist to TO ratio (1.4; UVA is next at 1.1)
- Second in FG% defense (39.7; WF is first at 39.5)
- Second in scoring margin (7.6)
- Fourth in FT (73%)
- Fifth in 3PFG defense (30.6; Duke is first at 23.5)

The most surprising stat is the 3PFG percentage. At the start of the season, I would have bet big money that MD would end up considerably south of 40%.

Duke is on a 9 game winning streak in conference. MD has five wins in a row. The key stat tomorrow night will be MD's ability to handle the Duke pressure and deal with the officiating. ACC refs have a Duke bias. Not up for debate. It is a fact.

GW needs to have Gregory and Williams on the court together for extended minutes. One thing we learned 2.5 weeks ago; Milbourne cannot guard Zoubek (who is this year's ACC version of Dave Neal; most improved player).

MD 74
Duke 69

=====

The Milbourne family would like to send their appreciation to Cory Alexander for giving Mosley the blame for the inbounds pass at the end of regulation on Saturday.

I am guessing that Tim Brandt would like to point out that Vasquez's 41 points against VT were the most he has scored since he had 16 against Miami on January 26.

=====

12722

Clemson - MD

NCAA Tournament Odds: 99%
Likely Seed: 5
Vasquez playing in the NBA all year next season: 85%
Keith Booth calling another time-out this year: 0.000001%

Why my brain hurts. . .

For those of you listening to the broadcast last night, here is the comment made by Brandt on two occasions:

"Sean Mosley has 13 points tonight; the most he has had since he scored ten points against Miami on January 26."

Hmmm. That would be an interesting comment if, and only if, thirteen was less than ten.

On another topic, here is a GW quote from the GT post-game press conference:

"For anybody who thinks that he doesn't belong in the top 5 to 7 players that have ever been here they don't know the game very well."

A few comments:

- I thought I knew the game very well.
- Here is Vasquez's post season resume. . . ready?. . . one win over a weak Cal team. That is it.
- Five to seven? Not a chance.
- Who are you throwing off this bus?

- Bias
- Dixon
- Lucas
- Smith
- McMillan
- Williams
- Elmore

I could keep going. . . Blake and Baxter are ahead of him.

Barring an elite 8 trip next month, this list is not going to change.

MD - GT Comments

Wow.

That was an awesome game from start to finish. NCAA tournament-type atmosphere. The answer to the question is Drew Nicholas.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQhNDWnlflE

Seven years ago. The question is when was the last time MD had a more significant buzzer-beater to win a game. The Nicholas shot had a higher degree of difficulty.

Tucker entered the game with four minutes remaining based solely on a bad inbounds pass from Mosley. Great pass from Hayes on the play. Tucker was clutch.

Gani Lawal was 2 for 8 at the line.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmmnA8WVqW8

In watching the video, it is clear that the time-out call was made by Keith Booth. GW was immediately irate, turned his back to the court to confront Booth, and seemed to shout, you never do that. Then, he looked at the court and realized that Vasquez's shot had banked in. This added fuel to the fire. He then swung one arm in a pointing motion at Booth and then did the same with his other arm (backpedaling as he did so - reminiscent of Carmelo at the Garden a few years back). I don't think he made contact. Nonetheless, I am guessing that Booth will be leaving the time-out calls to GW the rest of the way. All will be forgotten after the Tucker 26-footer.

Another event that is likely to be forgotten. . . Vasquez's floater from the lane with 15 seconds left to put MD up by one.

Another? How about the put-back by Jordan Williams late in the game? Or, the Eric Hayes drive with the shot high off the backboard? Or, his routine three-pointer with a minute left?

Four lead changes in the final 23 seconds.

MD now stands at 9 and 3 in the league.

NCAA Tournament Chances: 95%
Vasquez in the NBA next year chances (full season): 90%
Pre-game RPI: 38

Four tough ACC games remaining (RPI shown below):

Clemson (36)
at VT (45)
Duke (3)
at UVA (110)

Winning two of the four seems likely. A win against Clemson next week would lock up a first-round bye in Greensboro.

When was the last time MD was actually unfortunate in not being able to play UNC twice? Tar Heel nation is spiraling with an RPI of 82 after losing 9 of their past 11 games. Nine straight if you remove NC State from the equation.

UNC's NIT Tournament Chances: coin flip

Nice.

There is no way Favors returns to GT next year. Top five NBA lottery pick lock. Maybe, top two.

=====
12,512

State of North Carolina

This team has a decent chance at missing the NIT after being ranked #4 in the nation to start the year. I am surprised that more isn't being made of the job that Roy Williams is turning in this year. He was practically asleep on the sideline last Sunday as the Terps were putting a 21-point beatdown on the Heels. Speaking of 21-point (or more) ACC victories, there have been four thus far in the ACC; the Terps have three (NC State, Miami, and UNC; the fourth could have easily been at BC which ended up as a sixteen-point victory).

The only other is GT over Wake by 21 at GT.

The Heels don't play defense. Maryland hasn't played an ACC team that gave more open looks from distance in a long time.

Here is a breakdown of UNC's recent recruiting classes:

2008:
Zeller (ranked #7 in the nation)
Davis (#11)
Drew (#29)

2009:
Henson (#6)
Strickland (#27)
McDonald (#32)
Wear (#36)
Wear (#37)

This is next year's class thus far:
Barnes (#1)
Bullock (#16)
Marshall (#22)

McAdoo is already committed for 2011 (ranked #3); Hairston is #16.

For the Terps over the same timeframe:

2007: DuPree #65
2008: Mosley #40
2009: Nobody (I am not sure how Jordan Williams didn't make the top 100 list)
2010: Parker (SG, #40) and Stoglin (PG, #98)

If you think this is insignificant, check out the 2007 rankings. The top 50 is a very impressive list; the next 50 is not (yes, that includes Braxton DuPree).

1 - 5: Love, Gordon, Mayo, Singler, and Rose. Four lottery picks and a future first-rounder.

6 - 10: Nolan Smith, Austin Freeman, Beasley, Patterson, and Calathes. Still not sure how top in-state talent like Freeman and Beasley don't give College Park consideration. Patterson is projected at #9 in June.

11 - 15: Corey Fisher, Koufos, Aldrich, Hickson, and Stokes. Hickson is playing well in Cleveland. I still remember his drop-step dunk in a half-court set at MD three years ago; the type of dunk that you had to watch five times with TiVo right after it happened.

16 - 20: King, Greene, Blake Griffin, Lucas, and Moore. #1 pick in the draft at #18 overall. Moore has had a very solid career in West Lafayette. Taylor King couldn't cut it in Durham.

21 - 25: Harden, Lawal, Flynn, Anderson, and Jordan. Harden and Flynn were lottery picks. Jordan is playing on the Clips. Lawal and Anderson are projected in the mid first round in June.

26 - 30: Wright, Daye, Legion, Randolph, and Blair. Blair is starting for the Spurs; absolute steal in round 2 last year. Randolph will put up huge numbers once he escapes from Don Nelson.

31 - 35: Johnson, Pope, Alabi, Tucker, and Hillman. Nothing impressive other than Alabi.

36 - 40: Lucas, Robinson, Harris, Bayless, and Diebler. Bayless was the fourth pick in the draft two years ago. Kalin Lucas was Big Ten POY last year. Harris is a future first-rounder.

49: Evan Turner; projected at #2 in June.

Duke on Saturday. Keep this in mind; they lost by 14 at NC State. They only won by 3 at BC.

=====

12,371

MD - FSU Comments

RPI: 52 (before the game)
NCAA Tournament Odds: 70% (unchanged from last update)
Vasquez in an NBA Uniform Next Year Odds (entire year): 30% (down 5% due to being locked up by someone named Tanner Smith)

Very nice win.

Gregory had the biggest play of the game in taking the charge at the end. The ref made a tough call in that situation; but, on replay, he clearly had it right. I thought the charge that Gregory took earlier in the game was a block.

Most bizarre stat I heard all night: Gregory (87% from the line). He is now 22 for 25 on the season. Just have him go in there and head fake. Damn. Clutch throws at the end. In case you are wondering, he was 54% from the line last year.

Vasquez had a very solid overall game with 23, 7, 7. He cut his turnovers down to 5 (from 9 at Clemson). One shimmy is one too many.

MD out-rebounded FSU and also had more blocks. Very impressive given the size differential.

GW made an excellent call at the end going for the foul instead of allowing a three-pointer. Nice to see him play the percentages. Also nice to see that Chris Singleton forgot you had to draw iron.

Jordan Williams has arrived. No more comments on his vertical. Four dunks. He is now playing like he cares about the outcome of the game.

Milbourne has been clutch all year. He is the best mid-range shooter MD has had since Juan Dixon. He routinely knocks down 17-footers with hands in his face. Lately, he has shown a surprising ability to block shots at the rim. Impressive all around. NBA draft net has him at #51; Vasquez is projected at #44. 17 of the 30 second-rounders in last year's draft are currently in an NBA uniform.

Hayes is in his fourth year learning how to dribble with his left hand. Shaky. Still needs to shoot more.

Bowie will have visions of being posterized by Singleton for a long time. I am still going on record that MD is a better team when he is in the starting line-up getting 25 minutes per game. He is ineffective getting 10 to 15 minutes per game knowing there is a quick hook.

I forgot to mention the departure of Kim / Choi from College Park. We hardly knew ye. Although, thanks to being reminded 82 times during broadcasts, I am fairly confident that he was the first Korean player ever to play D1 basketball.

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12316

MD - NC State Comments

RPI: 51
NCAA Tournament Odds: 70%
Vasquez in an NBA Uniform Next Year Odds: 35%

This team has shown steady improvement over the past two weeks.

Vasquez has been very solid since early December. Tucker seems to be the X-factor. Vinnie Johnson-like. I am still not sure why Bowie can't get more time on the court. He is a huge defensive upgrade and has the ability to penetrate and create opportunities. Jordan Williams has also steadily improved. I am still not sure if he has a double-digit vertical. I would like to see Padget get more minutes. Hayes still needs to shoot more. Milbourne has played very well. Gregory fills his role nicely. Mosley continues to surprise on the boards and doesn't take bad shots.

First place in the ACC means nothing after four games. The FSU win was their only win over a team with an RPI south of 86. They are 3 - 1 in the ACC and I think it will take ten wins (20 overall) to get into the tournament. That would mean 10 - 6 in the regular season (to get a lock invite); or, 9 - 7 with one ACC tournament win.

Here are the remaining 12 games; location and RPI shown below:

Miami (H) - 99
Clemson (A) - 43
FSU (A) - 47
UNC (H) - 70
UVA (H) - 93
Duke (A) - 3
NC State (A) - 86
Georgia Tech (H) - 28
Clemson (H) - 43
VT (A) - 72
Duke (H) - 3
UVA (A) - 93

It looks like must wins are Miami (H), UVA (H), and NC State (A).

The only sure losses appear to be at Clemson and at Duke.

That means that they must win four of the remaining seven.

I am predicting 9 - 7 in the ACC with an ACC Tournament finals appearance to lock up the NCAA bid (7 seed).

Losses thus far (with RPIs):

- Cincy (48)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Villanova (4)
- William and Mary (44)
- Wake Forest (21)

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12214 - RPIs referenced from www.realtimerpi.com