NIT Comments

NCAA Tournament Probability: 62%
Predicted number of future NBA players on roster: Zero

Good start to the season. Very competitive losses to #4 Pitt (because of missed FTs) and #16 ILL (because of poor perimeter defense). #37 overall ranking seems right.

It is not "if" but "when" Stoglin moves into the starting PG position and Bowie becomes the sixth man. I think it will happen in mid December.

This team will struggle with turn-overs and three-point shooting all year. Add rebounding when (not if) Williams gets into foul trouble. The team will excel with open-court, fast-paced tempo that is triggered by the full-court press. In other words, a typical GW team. I think the FT shooting issue will get fixed.

Two games with Bobby Knight's commentary was very solid overall. He had a few moments when you had to question his thinking; most notably, he went into a long explanation as to why it is a good idea to make the first and miss the second FT intentionally when you are up by 2 with five seconds left on the clock. Stupid. Last time I checked, it is tough to hit a four-pointer.

He also went a bit overboard on "counting" dribbles. He said Stoglin bounced it 19 times "because I counted" on one possession. I used the DVR to check and it was 13.

Here are a few comments:

- Williams: Best player and clearly the most important player on the team. . . averaging 19 and 12 through five games. . . loss of 20 lbs allows for throwdowns at the rack instead of lay-ins. . . polished inside game. . . still gets a lot of shots blocked. . . could use a lesson from Baxter on using the rim to prevent that from happening. . . only two blocked shots in five games. . . still commits bad fouls. . . has tendency to use left arm to hook opponent on baseline moves. . . will be on the bench with foul trouble quite a bit this season. . . FT shooting will be a problem.

- Tucker: Bobby Knight's favorite player. . . great in the open floor. . . showed a nice mid-range game from the FT area. . . averaging 15, 4 boards, and 3 assists thus far. . . can disappear for long stretches when games slow down.

- Mosley: Averaging 9, 4 boards, and 3 assists. . . seems to get shorter each year. . . 1 for 9 from distance. . . mid-range game seems off compared to last year. . . did I mention that he is under-sized? . . . great overall knowledge of the game. . . I am confident that this is just an early season funk. . . if not, MD is in serious trouble.

- Bowie: 18 assists and 17 turn-overs thus far. . . he is a two that is being disguised as a one. . . not a creator in the half-court set. . . great in the open court. . . defense goes with his offense. . . not able to get open looks for three when he is playing the point. . . shot 41% from distance last year. . . with the lack of other options, MD will need him to get 3 or 4 looks from distance per game.

- Gregory: Great shot blocker. . . plays bigger than his height. . . good catch and shoot mid-range game thus far. . . not a great rebounder. . . good FT shooter who should find a way to play with his back to the basket on offense so that he can get to the line more often.

- Stoglin: Pure scorer. . . best shooter on the team. . . averaging 0.3 assists per game over the last three. . . will not get into the starting line-up until that stat gets fixed. . . easy to understand how he was the second all-time leading scorer in AZ.

Howard: Very impressive against Charleston. . . not so much in the last three games. . . I can't see him playing the point for long stretches.

Weijs: I like what I see so far in limited minutes. . . goes after blocked shots. . . active. . . can finish on the offensive end. . . still far too weak to justify double-digit minutes per game.

Padgett: 4 for 14 at the FT line so far. . . 28.6%. . . has no offensive game beyond dunks off of feeds. . . decent on the defensive end. . . will commit a lot of fouls.

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2010 - 2011 Opening Comments

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First, I need to post a few comments about Eric Hayes' performance in the three-point shoot-out at last year's Final Four. He dominated the competition. Here is a run-down of his four rounds; Z = Miss; O = Make.

Round 1:
OOOOO OOOOO OOZZO OOZOO OOOZZ = 20 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 24 points

Round 2:
ZOZOO ZOOZO ZOZOZ OOOOO OZZZO = 15 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 19 points

Round 3:
ZOZOZ OZZZO ZZZOO ZZOOO OOZOO = 13 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 17 points

Round 4:
OOOZO ZZZOO OOOOZ OOOOO ZOZOO = 18 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 22 points

Overall: 66 for 100, 16 for 20 on money balls

Amazing performance. I said it for the past three years; MD did not find a way to get him enough shots. He averaged just over four per game for his last three years; should have been 7 or 8. He was 45% last year (4.3 attempts per game).

The great site, "Maryland Basketball: Where are they now?" provided the following information on Hayes and Milbourne:

- Hayes will play for El Leche Río Breogán in Spain; sponsored by El Leche Rio (Milk River).

- Landon Milbourne will play with S.O.M. Boulogne in France.

Grevis is on the Memphis Grizzlies bench. I still have a bet with a reader in the ATL that he will play more than 82 games in his NBA career. Easy money.

Now, a few comments on this year's team:

An East Coast correspondent was at the Terps' practice tonight and said that GW was working extensively on conditioning. Good to hear that. He also said that Jordan Williams will be much improved at the line. I would buy 65% right now and be happy with it.

Looks like the starting five will be:
- Bowie
- Tucker
- Mosley
- Williams
- Gregory

Three freshman will see PT off the bench; Parker, Stoglin, and Howard. Padgett will play a big role filling in for Gregory when he gets in foul trouble. Nine deep.

I have seen predictions anywhere from fifth to seventh in the ACC.

I think Tucker is the most important piece to the puzzle. A big year from him would mean a top 3 finish in the ACC. A down year means bubble time in March.

Lastly, here are a few stats from previous NBA draft combines:

Vasquez (2010):
- Maxed out with ONE rep of 185 on the bench (for comparison, Booker did 22; Schenscher tied Grevis with 1 in 2005)
- Sprint time: 3.48 seconds (Felton was 3.06)
- Agility time: 11.13 seconds (Felton: 10.5)
- 28-inch vertical
- 8.6% body fat (was 6.9% last year)

Milbourne (2010):
- 4 inch differential between height and wingspan (Jay Bilas' favorite stat)
- No other stats available

Gist (2008):
- 9-inch differential between height and wingspan (7'4 span)
- 5 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds
- Agility time: 11.37 seconds
- 35-inch vertical
- 4.8% body fat

Strawberry (2007):
- 1.5-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 21 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds
- Agility time: 10.87 seconds
- 35-inch vertical
- 4.5% body fat

Caner-Medley (2006): He did very well in the combine.
- 17 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.21 seconds
- Agility time: 10.57 seconds
- 36-inch vertical (0.5 inch higher than D-Wade; had to be a typo)
- 9.6% body fat

Gilchrist (2005):
- 8-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 12 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds
- Agility time: 11.48 seconds
- 36.5-inch vertical

Wilcox (2002):
- 5-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 20 reps of 185 on the bench
- Sprint time: 3.16 seconds
- Agility time: 11.43 seconds
- 35-inch vertical (max vertical reach of 11'10)

Baxter (2002):
- 7-inch differential between height and wingspan
- 14 reps of 185 on the bench (must of had a bad day)
- Sprint time: 3.21 seconds
- Agility time: 11.77 seconds
- 33-inch vertical (max vertical reach of 11'10)

A few other stats:

- Nate Robinson (43.5) and Vince Carter (43) did well in max vert
- Vasquez's 28 inch vertical put him in the bottom 10%-ile of the database
- Oliver Miller (22%) didn't fare well in the body-fat category
- Dahntay Jones (Duke; 2003) had the lowest in the database (2.6%)
- Sprint times ranged from 2.91 to 3.80.
- Nate Robinson ran a 2.96
- Schenscher ran a 3.47 (0.01 faster than Grevis)
- Agility times ranged from 9.65 to 14.45.

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