Sunday, February 27, 2011

MD - UNC Comments


NCAA Tournament Bid Probability: 11%

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That was the first time I have seen UNC play this year. They are good. Very good.

Is it just me, or was anyone else thinking of Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct whenever they showed the crowd behind Gary Williams in the first half?

It will now take an ACC Tournament final appearance to get a bid (assuming they win the next two this week). That would be 23 - 12.

This team is looking very good for 2013. Final four good. Williams will be a senior. Stoglin, Howard, and Palsson will be juniors. Faust will be a sophomore. Padgett will hopefully be on the bench. Sweet sixteen is the expectation for next year.

Gregory didn't play well tonight. He has had a very solid senior season.

I can't see Williams going early. Makes no sense. He is a college player right now who has glaring weaknesses that need to be fixed before he is a legitimate first-round selection. He did show something tonight that he hasn't shown all season; dependable mid range game. He gets a ton of shots blocked in half-court sets. Imagine what would happen going against NBA fours and fives.

Stoglin hit a lot of very difficult shots tonight. 28, 3, 4, and 4 turns. He is number one option on offense right now; has been for the past four games. His ability to hit the floater in transition from 6 to 8 feet is amazing. He also has an uncanny ability to get fouled on jumpers. Not sure how he does that.

I said it at the start of the season. . . success this season is highly dependent on Tucker. He has regressed this year without getting open feeds from Vasquez. He even seems to have regressed in his open court play. He loafed it down the court tonight on a transition dunk by UNC after a made basket at an important point in the second-half. Inexcusable. I was surprised that GW didn't call a time-out and put Palsson in right there. In fact, I am surprised that Palsson didn't get more than three minutes tonight.

Bowie is lost.

Mosley's offensive game is sometimes painful to watch. Who is telling him that he should shoot threes? Stop it.

Padgett will be the key to next year. He almost turned into a Lady Terp midway through the second-half when he was abused on successive trips down the court. I have no problem if he gets his shot blocked; it is a big problem if he is timid doing so.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

MD - Duke Comments


Record: 14 - 8
ACC: 4 - 4
RPI (before tonight): 72
NCAA Tourny Bid Probability: 32%

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With the lack of offensive talent on the team, a lot has to go right for MD to contend against ranked teams. Not much went right tonight.

- Poor performance defending the three (allowing Duke to go 10 for 23; 44%)
- 2 for 9 from distance (after an 0 for 6 at GT)
- Poor defense; allowing Duke to shoot 53%
- Combined 5 for 21 night for Tucker / Stoglin / Mosley / Howard

Singler took over the game in the second-half. Poor hedging on screens led to far too many open looks.

Nine games left:
- Wake (H) - 234 RPI
- Longwood (H) - 317 RPI
- BC (A) - 45 RPI
- VT (A) - 69 RPI
- NC ST (H) - 97 RPI
- FSU (H) - 56 RPI
- UNC (A) - 13 RPI
- MIA (A) - 71 RPI
- UVA (H) - 151 RPI

Most likely scenario is 6 and 3; losses at VT, UNC, and MIA. That would be 20 - 11 (9 - 7) headed into the ACC tournament. Anything short of a finals appearance (23 wins) would mean NIT. I think 22 and 12 will not make it.

Quick comments:

- Williams: Lock for all ACC first team; 12 for 16 at the line tonight was one of the few positive take-aways.

- Bowie: Misses a lot of chippies.

- Mosley: Thought he would build off the GT game; doesn't look like that will happen. Needs to find ways to get his 10 to 12 foot shots in the lane like his first two years.

- Stoglin: Best shooter on the team; can't find shots. Not a great passer.

- Howard: Bad shooter.

- Gregory: Solid contributor.

- Tucker: X-factor. MD needed a big season from him. He hasn't delivered. At his best when he rebounds and goes coast to coast. At his worst when he disappears in half-court sets.

- Palsson: Best on the team at feeding the post from the wing. Always looks for Williams when he enters the game.

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