Wednesday, February 27, 2013

MD - GT Comments

NCAA Tournament Likelihood:  3.7%
NIT Likelihood:  73%

Jake Layman Stats:  1 for 8 floor (including 0 for 6 from three). . . 1 board (hard not to walk into one when you play 26 minutes - second highest on the team to Wells' 33). . . Not much more to be said.  

Howard:  0 for 4 floor. . . zero points. . . 8 minutes of PT was 8 minutes too many.  

Len:  13 and 9. . .fouled out in 23 minutes.  No blocks.  Actually saw him take a shot not fading away from the basket.  

Faust:  Made 4 of 5 shots. . . had six turnovers because he played out of position at PG due to Turgeon's insistence on watching Layman play and launch ill-advised threes.  

GT had 22 assists on 26 FGs.  Crazy stat.  

OK.  Enough with the negativity.  Let's talk next year.  

Evan Smotrycz.  Remember that name.  He will be MD's best player next year.  6'9, 230, can fill it from three.  

Next year's staring line-up:

PG:  Allen / Peters sharing minutes
SG:  Faust
SF:  Wells
PF:  Smotrycz
C:  Cleare  

Mitchell will be the first off the bench.  
Layman will be the seventh man.  
Dodd will be next.   
Maybe Howard will re-discover his game.  

Odds on either Faust or Layman transferring:  50/50.  

 

 

Monday, February 25, 2013

7 Random Thoughts on the 2012-2013 Terps:  

 1.  Alex Len:  He is averaging 12 and 8 with 2 blocks per game.  Seems OK statistically with 54% from the floor and 68% at the line.  However, there is much more beyond the numbers.  He disappears from games. . . frequently.  He has an uncanny ability to catch the ball on the post with his back to the basket, frantically dribble back out to the three-point line, panic, and lose the ball for a break-away on the other end.  He is averaging 8 shot attempts per game.  He should be taking 15+.  Maybe he doesn't like playing with his back to the basket so much.  Put him at the free throw line more often.  Bring back the Gary Williams Flex and let him run the baseline screens.  Do something different.  Some of that has to go on Turgeon.  He plays only 26 minutes per game; most of the time not due to foul trouble.  Somehow, DraftExpress still has him at #5 overall in June.  NBADraft.net has him at #8.  Both of those sites must not be watching many ACC games this year.  No doubt that he will declare within a week of the end of the season.  No doubt that I will "take the under" on his odds for success in the NBA.  

2.  NCAA Tournament Likelihood:  42%.  19 and 8 overall.  RPI of 65.  Their third-best win is Stony Brook.  Crazy.  Average RPI from 19 wins is 185.  13 - 1 doesn't count for much now.  Significantly underachieved.  3 and 7 against teams with a two-digit RPI.  KenPom has MD at #59 overall (46th best defense; 94th best offense).  Jay Bilas has MD at #44. 

Three Paths to the Dance:  

A.  Win @ GT, @ WF, UNC, @ UVA (finish at 11 - 7; 23 and 8); can lose first round game in ACC tournament and still get in (as long as it is close).  

B.  Win three of final four (finish at 10 - 8; 22 - 9); must win first game in ACC tournament and stay very competitive on Saturday.  

C.  Win ACC Tournament.  

3.  Mark Turgeon Job Security:  Lukewarm.  Guaranteed to be back for third year - for which making the tournament would be a requirement to be back for a fourth.  My critique this year:

A.  Way too many line-up changes.  Pick your best five.  Stick with it.  I can help with that:  Allen, Faust, Wells, Padgett, and Len. 
B.  Layman plays too much.  Aronhalt needs more playing time.  
C.  He has Len for only five more games (worst-case).  Feed him.  Give him 15 to 20 looks a game and let's see what happens.  Go inside-out with Len and Aronhalt.  Allen, Faust, and Wells can draw and dish to him. 
D.  Faust and Padgett need to play more.  Layman and Cleare need to play less.  
E.  Ten man rotations don't work.  I can solve that.  Howard sits.  That leaves nine.  Give Cleare five minutes per game.  That leaves eight.  Give Layman 10 minutes.  Give Aronhalt and Mitchell between 15 and 20 each.  

4.  Jake Layman:  Shooting 32% from distance.  Not living up to the billing.  His misses are lucky to draw iron.  Looking forward to seeing him make a three and not having a facial expression like he just won the lottery.  

5.  Dez Wells:  29% from distance after making 38% at Xavier last year.  Ease up on the trigger finger.  Go back to slashing and drawing contact.  

6.  Charles Mitchell:  6'8.  I don't think he can dunk.  Excellent footwork.  Solid on the offensive glass.  Defensive liability.  

7.  Aronhalt:  Has to be wondering why he only played nine minutes against Clemson after scoring 26 at BC.  That makes two of us. 







Wednesday, January 16, 2013

MD - NC State Comments

NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 77%

That game was painful to watch. Storming the court? WTF? I can see that if it was sheer elation that the game ended. That was a win against a #14 team in which MD was favored by one to win the game.

 ESPN Bracketology has MD as one of the first four teams not to make the tournament.

KenPom has MD at #56 overall. 338th toughest schedule (out of 347).

MD's RPI was 86 prior to tonight's game. That needs to be sub 40 to be fairly confident in making the tournament.

 Jay Bilas is the best color commentator in college basketball. Liked his comment on the fact that nobody was going to be putting the tape of tonight's game in a vault for future generations to watch.

MD's best win prior to tonight was a win over Stony Brook (#92). Not the Stony Brook where legends played hoop near Belt Junior High. The win at Northwestern seemed like a good win at the time; not anymore as NW has gone into a tailspin.

Turgeon wasn't happy during the post-game interview with MD's ability to run plays after time-outs. I haven't been happy with the crappy half court offense he is running. Bring back the GW Flex. MD is not getting many open looks.

MD's starting line-up should be:  Allen, Faust, Wells, Mitchell, and Len.  

MD is 14 - 3 right now; 2 - 2 in conference. 14 ACC games left.

Likely Wins (7): BC, Wake, UVA, Clemson, at GT, at Wake, at UVA

50/50 Games (4): at VT, Duke, UNC, at BC

Likely Losses (3): at UNC, at Duke, at FSU

That means 23 - 8 (11 - 7) heading into the ACC tournament. I know it sounds crazy. But, in that scenario, they would still need one tournament win to get in. That is how bad the ACC is this year.

Possibilities:
- Sweet 16 loss:  Fantastic season; would have exceed expectations
- Final 32 loss:  This is the expectation.
- First round loss:  Less than expected.
- Not making the tournament:  Far short of expectations. 

Player comments on what I have seen thus far:

Len: Listed at #4 overall in the DraftExpress projection for the June draft. . . I can't see that happening. . . Significant regression offensively. . . Struggles to score. . . Does not play well with back to the basket. . . No go-to move. . . On pace to set a record for most times having his own shots blocked despite being 7'1. . . Outstanding defensively in making defenders alter shots.  .  . For MD to have a chance to make it to the final 32, it is a requirement that he finds a way to score from the post. 

Wells: Needs to shoot more. . . 56% FG for the season. . . MD's best scorer.

Allen: MD's best 3-point shooter not named Aronhalt. . . 39% on season. . . Like Bilas said, he is MD's best player in being able to penetrate and get to the rim.

Faust: Shooting 38% for the season. . . not what was expected. . . major shooting slump. . . needs to use size and draw fouls on slashes to the hoop. . . streaky. . . 9 ppg this year; same as last year. . . in fact, stats are almost identical to last year across the board (37% FG last year).

Mitchell: Give him back his minutes. . . Only played nine minutes tonight. . . Not sure why. . . Has some Lonnie Baxter in his offensive game. . . He will be back into the starting line-up within the next three games. . . very solid inside game. . . surprisingly athletic for his Dunkin Donut physique.

Cleare: Can dunk near the bucket. . . gets rebounds. . . moves people around. . . Ugly form on shot. . . don't want to see him taking shots outside of five feet.

Aronhalt: Why can't we get this guy more open looks? . . . He needs to show the ability to put the ball on the floor after catches and create shots for others when over-played.

Layman: Disappointment so far. . . had much higher expectations. . . 37% FG. . . 26% 3PFG. . . minutes will dwindle if he continues to not show up offensively.

Howard: Deserved to lose his starting role. . . Nice bounce-back game tonight in hitting a few key shots. . . doesn't seem fully recovered from injuries.

Padgett: I can't justify playing him over Cleare or Mitchell at this point. . . his PT will also go down.