tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38800330189525075662024-03-13T10:23:47.948-07:00Maryland Terrapin Basketball CommentaryTerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-13551319178477022322014-03-14T00:19:00.001-07:002014-03-14T00:19:30.919-07:00Welcome to the Big Ten<br />
Tough way to end the season and exit the ACC. Can't remember the last time I saw a game end on a dunk off a half-court set. It might be all the way back to Lorenzo Charles in the 1983 National Title Game. Horrendous defense on that last play. <br />
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The officials <u>gave</u> FSU six points. MD lost by two. <br />
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The Dez Wells dunk was an instant ten-time replay for the four of us watching on DVR tonight. Got better with each replay. <br />
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17 wins and 15 losses. 22 and 10 was the expectation with the talent on this roster. Significantly underachieved. Look at the Rivals National Rankings:<br />
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48th (2011) - Faust<br />
48th (2013) - Peters <br />
53rd (2012) - Cleare<br />
59th (2010) - Smotrycz <br />
70th (2012) - Layman<br />
76th (2011) - Wells <br />
92nd (2012) - Mitchell<br />
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Four solid recruits for next year:<br />
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36th (2014) - Trimble (6'3)<br />
49th (2014) - Wiley (6'4)<br />
93rd (2014) - Nickens (6'6)<br />
96th (2014) - Reed (7'1; 210 lbs) <br />
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Next year's team will be deep. Very deep. Fifth or Sixth in the Big 10. Projected playing time distribution: <br />
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32 Allen<br />
32 Wells<br />
28 Layman<br />
25 Smotrycz<br />
23 Faust<br />
20 Mitchell<br />
14 Trimble <br />
10 Peters<br />
8 Wiley <br />
4 Cleare<br />
2 Graham<br />
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I think we will see at least one transfer in the spring - Cleare seems like a likely candidate. Would not be surprised if Faust decides to spend his senior year elsewhere after sitting out one year. 7 turnovers today. <br />
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Allen and Wells had very solid seasons. Wells would have been first-team All ACC if they only counted stats after halftime.<br />
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A few things to know about the Big Ten:<br />
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- No plans on changing the name to Big 14. Tradition is more important than math.<br />
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- Most difficult arenas to get road wins: MSU, Wisconsin, OSU, Michigan, IU, and Iowa.<br />
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- Also tough: The barn in Minnesota. <br />
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- Nebraska is the most improved team in the league. Miles has turned that program around quickly. <br />
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- Refs err on the side of not calling fouls. Very physical league.<br />
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- "The Journey" will soon be on season-record on your DVR.<br />
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- Nobody really cares who wins the Big Ten tournament. Much different than the tradition of the ACC tournament. <br />
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- ACC is a basketball first conference; Big Ten is a football first conference.<br />
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- You will soon form a strong dislike for Tom Izzo and Tom Crean. It will take roughly five minutes of the first game against MSU or Indiana. <br />
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- You will soon be amazed at what Bo Ryan does with the minimal talent he is able to recruit at Wisconsin. Overachieves every year. <br />
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Regardless of the 8-year contract - I can't see Turgeon in College Park in 2016 if MD doesn't make the tournament next year. <br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">NIT Likelihood: 73% </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jake Layman Stats: 1 for 8 floor (including 0 for 6 from three). . . 1 board (hard not to walk into one when you play 26 minutes - second highest on the team to Wells' 33). . . Not much more to be said. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Howard: 0 for 4 floor. . . zero points. . . 8 minutes of PT was 8 minutes too many. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Len: 13 and 9. . .fouled out in 23 minutes. No blocks. Actually saw him take a shot not fading away from the basket. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Faust: Made 4 of 5 shots. . . had six turnovers because he played out of position at PG due to Turgeon's insistence on watching Layman play and launch ill-advised threes. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GT had 22 assists on 26 FGs. Crazy stat. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">OK. Enough with the negativity. Let's talk next year. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Evan Smotrycz. Remember that name. He will be MD's best player next year. 6'9, 230, can fill it from three. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Next year's staring line-up:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">PG: Allen / Peters sharing minutes</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">SG: Faust</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">SF: Wells</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">PF: Smotrycz</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">C: Cleare </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mitchell will be the first off the bench. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Layman will be the seventh man. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Dodd will be next. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Maybe Howard will re-discover his game. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Odds on either Faust or Layman transferring: 50/50. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">7 Random Thoughts on the 2012-2013 Terps: </span></h2>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> 1. Alex Len: He is averaging 12 and 8 with 2 blocks per game. Seems OK statistically with 54% from the floor and 68% at the line. However, there is much more beyond the numbers. He disappears from games. . . frequently. He has an uncanny ability to catch the ball on the post with his back to the basket, frantically dribble back out to the three-point line, panic, and lose the ball for a break-away on the other end. He is averaging 8 shot attempts per game. He should be taking 15+. Maybe he doesn't like playing with his back to the basket so much. Put him at the free throw line more often. Bring back the Gary Williams Flex and let him run the baseline screens. Do something different. Some of that has to go on Turgeon. He plays only 26 minutes per game; most of the time not due to foul trouble. Somehow, DraftExpress still has him at #5 overall in June. NBADraft.net has him at #8. Both of those sites must not be watching many ACC games this year. No doubt that he will declare within a week of the end of the season. No doubt that I will "take the under" on his odds for success in the NBA. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">2. NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 42%. 19 and 8 overall. RPI of 65. Their third-best win is Stony Brook. Crazy. Average RPI from 19 wins is 185. 13 - 1 doesn't count for much now. Significantly underachieved. 3 and 7 against teams with a two-digit RPI. KenPom has MD at #59 overall (46th best defense; 94th best offense). Jay Bilas has MD at #44. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Three Paths to the Dance: </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A. Win @ GT, @ WF, UNC, @ UVA (finish at 11 - 7; 23 and 8); can lose first round game in ACC tournament and still get in (as long as it is close). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">B. Win three of final four (finish at 10 - 8; 22 - 9); must win first game in ACC tournament and stay very competitive on Saturday. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">C. Win ACC Tournament. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">3. Mark Turgeon Job Security: Lukewarm. Guaranteed to be back for third year - for which making the tournament would be a requirement to be back for a fourth. My critique this year:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A. Way too many line-up changes. Pick your best five. Stick with it. I can help with that: Allen, Faust, Wells, Padgett, and Len. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">B. Layman plays too much. Aronhalt needs more playing time. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">C. He has Len for only five more games (worst-case). Feed him. Give him 15 to 20 looks a game and let's see what happens. Go inside-out with Len and Aronhalt. Allen, Faust, and Wells can draw and dish to him. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">D. Faust and Padgett need to play more. Layman and Cleare need to play less. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">E. Ten man rotations don't work. I can solve that. Howard sits. That leaves nine. Give Cleare five minutes per game. That leaves eight. Give Layman 10 minutes. Give Aronhalt and Mitchell between 15 and 20 each. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4. Jake Layman: Shooting 32% from distance. Not living up to the billing. His misses are lucky to draw iron. Looking forward to seeing him make a three and not having a facial expression like he just won the lottery. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">5. Dez Wells: 29% from distance after making 38% at Xavier last year. Ease up on the trigger finger. Go back to slashing and drawing contact. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">6. Charles Mitchell: 6'8. I don't think he can dunk. Excellent footwork. Solid on the offensive glass. Defensive liability. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">7. Aronhalt: Has to be wondering why he only played nine minutes against Clemson after scoring 26 at BC. That makes two of us. </span><br />
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NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 77%<br />
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That game was painful to watch.
Storming the court? WTF? I can see that if it was sheer elation that the game ended. That was a win against a #14 team in which MD was favored by one to win the game.<br />
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ESPN Bracketology has MD as one of the first four teams not to make the tournament.<br />
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KenPom has MD at #56 overall. 338th toughest schedule (out of 347).<br />
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MD's RPI was 86 prior to tonight's game. That needs to be sub 40 to be fairly confident in making the tournament.<br />
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Jay Bilas is the best color commentator in college basketball. Liked his comment on the fact that nobody was going to be putting the tape of tonight's game in a vault for future generations to watch.<br />
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MD's best win prior to tonight was a win over Stony Brook (#92). Not the Stony Brook where legends played hoop near Belt Junior High. The win at Northwestern seemed like a good win at the time; not anymore as NW has gone into a tailspin.<br />
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Turgeon wasn't happy during the post-game interview with MD's ability to run plays after time-outs. I haven't been happy with the crappy half court offense he is running. Bring back the GW Flex. MD is not getting many open looks.<br />
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MD's starting line-up should be: Allen, Faust, Wells, Mitchell, and Len. <br />
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MD is 14 - 3 right now; 2 - 2 in conference. 14 ACC games left.<br />
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Likely Wins (7): BC, Wake, UVA, Clemson, at GT, at Wake, at UVA<br />
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50/50 Games (4): at VT, Duke, UNC, at BC<br />
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Likely Losses (3): at UNC, at Duke, at FSU<br />
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That means 23 - 8 (11 - 7) heading into the ACC tournament. I know it sounds crazy. But, in that scenario, they would still need one tournament win to get in. That is how bad the ACC is this year.<br />
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Possibilities: <br />
- Sweet 16 loss: Fantastic season; would have exceed expectations<br />
- Final 32 loss: This is the expectation.<br />
- First round loss: Less than expected. <br />
- Not making the tournament: Far short of expectations. <br />
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Player comments on what I have seen thus far:<br />
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<b>Len</b>: Listed at #4 overall in the DraftExpress projection for the June draft. . . I can't see that happening. . . Significant regression offensively. . . Struggles to score. . . Does not play well with back to the basket. . . No go-to move. . . On pace to set a record for most times having his own shots blocked despite being 7'1. . . Outstanding defensively in making defenders alter shots. . . For MD to have a chance to make it to the final 32, it is a requirement that he finds a way to score from the post. <br />
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<b>Wells</b>: Needs to shoot more. . . 56% FG for the season. . . MD's best scorer.<br />
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<b>Allen</b>: MD's best 3-point shooter not named Aronhalt. . . 39% on season. . . Like Bilas said, he is MD's best player in being able to penetrate and get to the rim.<br />
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<b>Faust</b>: Shooting 38% for the season. . . not what was expected. . . major shooting slump. . . needs to use size and draw fouls on slashes to the hoop. . . streaky. . . 9 ppg this year; same as last year. . . in fact, stats are almost identical to last year across the board (37% FG last year).<br />
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<b>Mitchell</b>: Give him back his minutes. . . Only played nine minutes tonight. . . Not sure why. . . Has some Lonnie Baxter in his offensive game. . . He will be back into the starting line-up within the next three games. . . very solid inside game. . . surprisingly athletic for his Dunkin Donut physique.<br />
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<b>Cleare</b>: Can dunk near the bucket. . . gets rebounds. . . moves people around. . . Ugly form on shot. . . don't want to see him taking shots outside of five feet.<br />
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<b>Aronhalt</b>: Why can't we get this guy more open looks? . . . He needs to show the ability to put the ball on the floor after catches and create shots for others when over-played.<br />
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<b>Layman</b>: Disappointment so far. . . had much higher expectations. . . 37% FG. . . 26% 3PFG. . . minutes will dwindle if he continues to not show up offensively.<br />
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<b>Howard</b>: Deserved to lose his starting role. . . Nice bounce-back game tonight in hitting a few key shots. . . doesn't seem fully recovered from injuries.<br />
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<b>Padgett</b>: I can't justify playing him over Cleare or Mitchell at this point. . . his PT will also go down.
TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-89056032845637142112012-01-25T23:16:00.000-08:002012-01-25T23:16:07.079-08:00MD - Duke Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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OK. Sorry for the delay in posting to this blog. No excuses other than bad funding. <br />
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NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 0.6% <br />
NIT Tournament Likelihood: 57%<br />
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- I read earlier today that Lefty wasn't happy with the decision to put Gary Williams' name on the court - saying it was a "disservice to Lucas, Elmore, Branch, etc." Hold on a second: <br />
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1. Why wasn't Len Bias included in that statement? <br />
2. Gary's name absolutely belongs on the court. <br />
3. Bob Wade thinks it is a disservice to Rudy Archer and Tony Massenburg. <br />
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- I watched Gary Williams' first game as an announcer on the Big Ten network two weeks ago - paired with Gus Johnson. Very solid performance. <br />
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- Why did it take until 2 minutes elapsed in the second half for Shulman and Knight to realize that Stoglin was left-handed? Nothing like getting complemented three times for using your strong hand. Knight's commentary tonight was less than stellar. <br />
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- Most Surprising Player: James Padgett. The stats do not show the whole story. He is averaging 9 and 6. But, when you watch him this year versus his first two years, the difference is amazing. He has slowed down his game. Mixed in a drop step. Improved his shooting. Very impressive development in his game. <br />
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- Stoglin: Needs to shoot more. A lot more. Having a very solid season. It is his team. Need more effort on defense. Not sure what happened tonight at the FT line. <br />
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- Howard: Needs to shoot less. A lot less. He is at his best when driving and dishing. Does not have the ball-handling skills to be fully effective at the point. <br />
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- Len: There was an article three weeks ago stating that he would be a lottery pick in June. Not sure what that writer was smoking. His game has significantly regressed over the past month - before the injury against Temple. He is at his worst when he stands 20 feet from the basket hoping to get an open look. If MD is going to make a run this year, he needs to develop a low-post game and learn how to stay on the floor on defense to not pick-up cheap fouls. Turgeon has to put him back in the starting line-up. The kid needs minutes. <br />
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- Turgeon: Good hire. Tonight, he basically decided that he didn't want Duke beating MD from the three-point line and took his chances going man-up on Mason Plumlee inside. Not a bad idea. It worked for 30 minutes. Plumlee played the game of his life - McHale-like on the block at times. Not sure why the help-side defense was so bad all night. It turned into a lay-up drill during the second-half when Coach K pulled everyone above the FT line. <br />
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As for the long-term situation, you have to wonder about the following scenario. MD does very well over the next three years (going to the tournament each year; going to the elite 8 in 2014; Dalonte Hill brings in key recruits and buys a breathalyzer; etc.). Then, Bill Self has a couple more early unexpected tournament exits. Then, a Turgeon presser saying that Kansas was the only job he would take over staying at MD as he departs in a U-Haul for Lawrence. <br />
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- Mosley: Bizarre sequence tonight when he pulled up for a top of the key three-pointer on a fast break off the dribble. Having a decent season overall. Gets a ton of his shots blocked. <br />
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- Pankey: I would like to buy stock in his game. Fun to watch. All-ACC by his senior year. <br />
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- Faust: Not a good shooter. Takes bad shots. Needs to realize that he is at his best when he is slashing to the hoop and stop relying on his outside game. <br />
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- Parker: Should get more playing time. <br />
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- Weijs: Should get less playing time.TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-1659011601767625692011-02-27T21:50:00.000-08:002011-02-27T21:50:14.047-08:00MD - UNC Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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NCAA Tournament Bid Probability: 11%<br />
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That was the first time I have seen UNC play this year. They are good. Very good. <br />
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Is it just me, or was anyone else thinking of Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct whenever they showed the crowd behind Gary Williams in the first half? <br />
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It will now take an ACC Tournament final appearance to get a bid (assuming they win the next two this week). That would be 23 - 12. <br />
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This team is looking very good for 2013. Final four good. Williams will be a senior. Stoglin, Howard, and Palsson will be juniors. Faust will be a sophomore. Padgett will hopefully be on the bench. Sweet sixteen is the expectation for next year. <br />
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Gregory didn't play well tonight. He has had a very solid senior season. <br />
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I can't see Williams going early. Makes no sense. He is a college player right now who has glaring weaknesses that need to be fixed before he is a legitimate first-round selection. He did show something tonight that he hasn't shown all season; dependable mid range game. He gets a ton of shots blocked in half-court sets. Imagine what would happen going against NBA fours and fives. <br />
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Stoglin hit a lot of very difficult shots tonight. 28, 3, 4, and 4 turns. He is number one option on offense right now; has been for the past four games. His ability to hit the floater in transition from 6 to 8 feet is amazing. He also has an uncanny ability to get fouled on jumpers. Not sure how he does that. <br />
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I said it at the start of the season. . . success this season is highly dependent on Tucker. He has regressed this year without getting open feeds from Vasquez. He even seems to have regressed in his open court play. He loafed it down the court tonight on a transition dunk by UNC after a made basket at an important point in the second-half. Inexcusable. I was surprised that GW didn't call a time-out and put Palsson in right there. In fact, I am surprised that Palsson didn't get more than three minutes tonight. <br />
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Bowie is lost. <br />
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Mosley's offensive game is sometimes painful to watch. Who is telling him that he should shoot threes? Stop it. <br />
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Padgett will be the key to next year. He almost turned into a Lady Terp midway through the second-half when he was abused on successive trips down the court. I have no problem if he gets his shot blocked; it is a big problem if he is timid doing so.TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-68929536812888155982011-02-02T23:36:00.000-08:002011-02-02T23:36:22.587-08:00MD - Duke Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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Record: 14 - 8<br />
ACC: 4 - 4<br />
RPI (before tonight): 72<br />
NCAA Tourny Bid Probability: 32%<br />
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With the lack of offensive talent on the team, a lot has to go right for MD to contend against ranked teams. Not much went right tonight. <br />
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- Poor performance defending the three (allowing Duke to go 10 for 23; 44%)<br />
- 2 for 9 from distance (after an 0 for 6 at GT)<br />
- Poor defense; allowing Duke to shoot 53% <br />
- Combined 5 for 21 night for Tucker / Stoglin / Mosley / Howard<br />
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Singler took over the game in the second-half. Poor hedging on screens led to far too many open looks. <br />
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Nine games left: <br />
- Wake (H) - 234 RPI<br />
- Longwood (H) - 317 RPI<br />
- BC (A) - 45 RPI<br />
- VT (A) - 69 RPI<br />
- NC ST (H) - 97 RPI<br />
- FSU (H) - 56 RPI<br />
- UNC (A) - 13 RPI<br />
- MIA (A) - 71 RPI<br />
- UVA (H) - 151 RPI<br />
<br />
Most likely scenario is 6 and 3; losses at VT, UNC, and MIA. That would be 20 - 11 (9 - 7) headed into the ACC tournament. Anything short of a finals appearance (23 wins) would mean NIT. I think 22 and 12 will not make it. <br />
<br />
Quick comments:<br />
<br />
- Williams: Lock for all ACC first team; 12 for 16 at the line tonight was one of the few positive take-aways. <br />
<br />
- Bowie: Misses a lot of chippies. <br />
<br />
- Mosley: Thought he would build off the GT game; doesn't look like that will happen. Needs to find ways to get his 10 to 12 foot shots in the lane like his first two years. <br />
<br />
- Stoglin: Best shooter on the team; can't find shots. Not a great passer. <br />
<br />
- Howard: Bad shooter. <br />
<br />
- Gregory: Solid contributor. <br />
<br />
- Tucker: X-factor. MD needed a big season from him. He hasn't delivered. At his best when he rebounds and goes coast to coast. At his worst when he disappears in half-court sets. <br />
<br />
- Palsson: Best on the team at feeding the post from the wing. Always looks for Williams when he enters the game. <br />
<br />
13432TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-40459562565905708472011-01-31T22:50:00.000-08:002011-01-31T22:50:13.941-08:00Kwame Brown<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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OK. It has been two months since my last post. This is what happens when you lose a sponsor and need to find a new one. We have a potential deal with a new sponsor and I hope to announce that in my write-up on the MD win over Duke on Wednesday. <br />
<br />
This is a quote that was posted on cbssportsline regarding Kwame Brown's recent play for the Charlotte Hornets. Yes. I know Kwame has no ties to the Terps. However, there is local relevancy as MJ threw away the Bullets' first overall pick on him in 2001. Gasol went #3. Zach Randolph went #19. Overall, it was a very weak draft year and the trend started with the first selection. Here is the quote from Paul Silas after Brown had a 13 and 18 game last week: <br />
<br />
"He's getting better, I tell you," Bobcats interim coach Paul Silas said Monday. "He's shooting that little jump shot. <b>He can make layups now</b>. Free-throw shooting, he's getting a lot better."<br />
<br />
The use of the word "now" makes that one of my favorite quotes in a long time. I am not sure that sentence has ever been used in reference to an NBA player. Or, college player. Perhaps, even high school. <br />
<br />
MD 74<br />
Duke 73TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-51782789963405848862010-12-01T23:10:00.000-08:002010-12-01T23:10:27.209-08:00MD - PSU Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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I am not sure if:<br />
<br />
a. PSU is the worst team in major division college basketball. <br />
b. MD just played its best defensive game in the GW era.<br />
<br />
I think both could be right. <br />
<br />
- PSU was 14 for 68 from the floor (21%)<br />
- PSU was 3 for 27 from distance (11%)<br />
- PSU had six assists and 12 turnovers<br />
- MD had 17 turn-overs and was only 12 for 21 at the line and still won 62 - 39. <br />
- MD's second-best player (Tucker) had zero points. <br />
<br />
Someone named Taran Buie was 0 for 9 in thirteen minutes; at some point, you need to dial it down Taran. <br />
<br />
Taking away Battle's 7 for 21 masterpiece, the rest of the team was 7 for 47 (15%). <br />
<br />
Fifteen percent. I didn't think that was possible for a group of eight D1 players. <br />
<br />
What else did we learn tonight? <br />
<br />
- Stoglin has a very nice handle on the ball. He is money at the line. He will be playing at the ends of games. Bowie still struggles to bring the ball up court against pressure. <br />
<br />
- MD is a significantly better defensive team than last year. Hayes and Vasquez didn't scare many teams on defense. I don't think this year's team has a defensive weak spot; although, they can improve on the defensive glass. <br />
<br />
- Padgett played his best game of the year. Very active. <br />
<br />
- Williams is still a circus at the FT line. 3 for 9 tonight. Other than that, he was awesome tonight. He is starting to use the rim inside to avoid getting his shot blocked; very Baxter-like in that regard. <br />
<br />
- The announcer informed us that Williams was the first all Freshman ACC player since "Jeff" Blake. I thought he was a QB for East Carolina. Steve Blake would disagree with her. <br />
<br />
- Gregory is solid. He is showing better range this year on his line-drive jumper that seems to hit the bottom of the net more often than not. He also has surprising throw-down in traffic ability. <br />
<br />
- MD is essentially eight deep. Weijs will play some; not much. What happened to Parker? This guy was #42 overall out of HS last year. <br />
<br />
13328TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-81790185914985818672010-11-20T00:07:00.000-08:002010-11-20T00:08:38.136-08:00NIT Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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NCAA Tournament Probability: 62%<br />
Predicted number of future NBA players on roster: Zero<br />
<br />
Good start to the season. Very competitive losses to #4 Pitt (because of missed FTs) and #16 ILL (because of poor perimeter defense). #37 overall ranking seems right. <br />
<br />
It is not "if" but "when" Stoglin moves into the starting PG position and Bowie becomes the sixth man. I think it will happen in mid December. <br />
<br />
This team will struggle with turn-overs and three-point shooting all year. Add rebounding when (not if) Williams gets into foul trouble. The team will excel with open-court, fast-paced tempo that is triggered by the full-court press. In other words, a typical GW team. I think the FT shooting issue will get fixed. <br />
<br />
Two games with Bobby Knight's commentary was very solid overall. He had a few moments when you had to question his thinking; most notably, he went into a long explanation as to why it is a good idea to make the first and miss the second FT intentionally when you are up by 2 with five seconds left on the clock. Stupid. Last time I checked, it is tough to hit a four-pointer. <br />
<br />
He also went a bit overboard on "counting" dribbles. He said Stoglin bounced it 19 times "because I counted" on one possession. I used the DVR to check and it was 13. <br />
<br />
Here are a few comments:<br />
<br />
- Williams: Best player and clearly the most important player on the team. . . averaging 19 and 12 through five games. . . loss of 20 lbs allows for throwdowns at the rack instead of lay-ins. . . polished inside game. . . still gets a lot of shots blocked. . . could use a lesson from Baxter on using the rim to prevent that from happening. . . only two blocked shots in five games. . . still commits bad fouls. . . has tendency to use left arm to hook opponent on baseline moves. . . will be on the bench with foul trouble quite a bit this season. . . FT shooting will be a problem.<br />
<br />
- Tucker: Bobby Knight's favorite player. . . great in the open floor. . . showed a nice mid-range game from the FT area. . . averaging 15, 4 boards, and 3 assists thus far. . . can disappear for long stretches when games slow down. <br />
<br />
- Mosley: Averaging 9, 4 boards, and 3 assists. . . seems to get shorter each year. . . 1 for 9 from distance. . . mid-range game seems off compared to last year. . . did I mention that he is under-sized? . . . great overall knowledge of the game. . . I am confident that this is just an early season funk. . . if not, MD is in serious trouble. <br />
<br />
- Bowie: 18 assists and 17 turn-overs thus far. . . he is a two that is being disguised as a one. . . not a creator in the half-court set. . . great in the open court. . . defense goes with his offense. . . not able to get open looks for three when he is playing the point. . . shot 41% from distance last year. . . with the lack of other options, MD will need him to get 3 or 4 looks from distance per game. <br />
<br />
- Gregory: Great shot blocker. . . plays bigger than his height. . . good catch and shoot mid-range game thus far. . . not a great rebounder. . . good FT shooter who should find a way to play with his back to the basket on offense so that he can get to the line more often.<br />
<br />
- Stoglin: Pure scorer. . . best shooter on the team. . . averaging 0.3 assists per game over the last three. . . will not get into the starting line-up until that stat gets fixed. . . easy to understand how he was the second all-time leading scorer in AZ. <br />
<br />
Howard: Very impressive against Charleston. . . not so much in the last three games. . . I can't see him playing the point for long stretches. <br />
<br />
Weijs: I like what I see so far in limited minutes. . . goes after blocked shots. . . active. . . can finish on the offensive end. . . still far too weak to justify double-digit minutes per game. <br />
<br />
Padgett: 4 for 14 at the FT line so far. . . 28.6%. . . has no offensive game beyond dunks off of feeds. . . decent on the defensive end. . . will commit a lot of fouls.<br />
<br />
13311TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-34098421123598563602010-11-03T22:37:00.000-07:002010-11-19T23:10:16.564-08:002010 - 2011 Opening Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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<br />
Havoline motor oils protect engines against bad deposits, improves mileage, and helps prevent expensive repairs. It is the only motor oil used by the team of people that contribute to this blog. Highly recommended. <br />
<br />
First, I need to post a few comments about Eric Hayes' performance in the three-point shoot-out at last year's Final Four. He dominated the competition. Here is a run-down of his four rounds; Z = Miss; O = Make. <br />
<br />
Round 1:<br />
OOOOO OOOOO OOZZO OOZOO OOOZZ = 20 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 24 points<br />
<br />
Round 2:<br />
ZOZOO ZOOZO ZOZOZ OOOOO OZZZO = 15 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 19 points<br />
<br />
Round 3: <br />
ZOZOZ OZZZO ZZZOO ZZOOO OOZOO = 13 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 17 points<br />
<br />
Round 4:<br />
OOOZO ZZZOO OOOOZ OOOOO ZOZOO = 18 for 25, 4 for 5 on money balls = 22 points<br />
<br />
Overall: 66 for 100, 16 for 20 on money balls<br />
<br />
Amazing performance. I said it for the past three years; MD did not find a way to get him enough shots. He averaged just over four per game for his last three years; should have been 7 or 8. He was 45% last year (4.3 attempts per game). <br />
<br />
The great site, "Maryland Basketball: Where are they now?" provided the following information on Hayes and Milbourne: <br />
<br />
- Hayes will play for El Leche Río Breogán in Spain; sponsored by El Leche Rio (Milk River). <br />
<br />
- Landon Milbourne will play with S.O.M. Boulogne in France. <br />
<br />
Grevis is on the Memphis Grizzlies bench. I still have a bet with a reader in the ATL that he will play more than 82 games in his NBA career. Easy money. <br />
<br />
Now, a few comments on this year's team: <br />
<br />
An East Coast correspondent was at the Terps' practice tonight and said that GW was working extensively on conditioning. Good to hear that. He also said that Jordan Williams will be much improved at the line. I would buy 65% right now and be happy with it. <br />
<br />
Looks like the starting five will be:<br />
- Bowie<br />
- Tucker<br />
- Mosley<br />
- Williams<br />
- Gregory<br />
<br />
Three freshman will see PT off the bench; Parker, Stoglin, and Howard. Padgett will play a big role filling in for Gregory when he gets in foul trouble. Nine deep. <br />
<br />
I have seen predictions anywhere from fifth to seventh in the ACC. <br />
<br />
I think Tucker is the most important piece to the puzzle. A big year from him would mean a top 3 finish in the ACC. A down year means bubble time in March. <br />
<br />
Lastly, here are a few stats from previous NBA draft combines:<br />
<br />
Vasquez (2010):<br />
- Maxed out with ONE rep of 185 on the bench (for comparison, Booker did 22; Schenscher tied Grevis with 1 in 2005)<br />
- Sprint time: 3.48 seconds (Felton was 3.06)<br />
- Agility time: 11.13 seconds (Felton: 10.5)<br />
- 28-inch vertical<br />
- 8.6% body fat (was 6.9% last year)<br />
<br />
Milbourne (2010):<br />
- 4 inch differential between height and wingspan (Jay Bilas' favorite stat)<br />
- No other stats available<br />
<br />
Gist (2008): <br />
- 9-inch differential between height and wingspan (7'4 span)<br />
- 5 reps of 185 on the bench<br />
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds<br />
- Agility time: 11.37 seconds<br />
- 35-inch vertical<br />
- 4.8% body fat<br />
<br />
Strawberry (2007): <br />
- 1.5-inch differential between height and wingspan <br />
- 21 reps of 185 on the bench<br />
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds<br />
- Agility time: 10.87 seconds<br />
- 35-inch vertical<br />
- 4.5% body fat<br />
<br />
Caner-Medley (2006): He did very well in the combine. <br />
- 17 reps of 185 on the bench<br />
- Sprint time: 3.21 seconds<br />
- Agility time: 10.57 seconds<br />
- 36-inch vertical (0.5 inch higher than D-Wade; had to be a typo)<br />
- 9.6% body fat<br />
<br />
Gilchrist (2005): <br />
- 8-inch differential between height and wingspan <br />
- 12 reps of 185 on the bench<br />
- Sprint time: 3.14 seconds<br />
- Agility time: 11.48 seconds<br />
- 36.5-inch vertical<br />
<br />
Wilcox (2002): <br />
- 5-inch differential between height and wingspan <br />
- 20 reps of 185 on the bench<br />
- Sprint time: 3.16 seconds<br />
- Agility time: 11.43 seconds<br />
- 35-inch vertical (max vertical reach of 11'10)<br />
<br />
Baxter (2002): <br />
- 7-inch differential between height and wingspan <br />
- 14 reps of 185 on the bench (must of had a bad day)<br />
- Sprint time: 3.21 seconds<br />
- Agility time: 11.77 seconds<br />
- 33-inch vertical (max vertical reach of 11'10)<br />
<br />
A few other stats:<br />
<br />
- Nate Robinson (43.5) and Vince Carter (43) did well in max vert<br />
- Vasquez's 28 inch vertical put him in the bottom 10%-ile of the database<br />
- Oliver Miller (22%) didn't fare well in the body-fat category<br />
- Dahntay Jones (Duke; 2003) had the lowest in the database (2.6%)<br />
- Sprint times ranged from 2.91 to 3.80. <br />
- Nate Robinson ran a 2.96<br />
- Schenscher ran a 3.47 (0.01 faster than Grevis)<br />
- Agility times ranged from 9.65 to 14.45.<br />
<br />
13272TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-87779486212890409992010-03-21T23:23:00.000-07:002010-03-31T22:48:56.410-07:00Korie Lucious<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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To use Grevis' quote from all post-game interviews this season, "words cannot express the feeling" all MD fans had in the six-seconds between his clutch floater to go up by one and the gut wrenching Lucious buzzer beater. <br />
<br />
Vasquez had just put MD ahead by one with 35-seconds left on a difficult leaner. He definitely saved his best for last. <br />
<br />
Michigan State's shooting stats: 55% FG; 56% 3PFG. <br />
MD's shooting stats: 44% FG; 47% 3PFG. <br />
<br />
MD was outrebounded 42 - 24. <br />
<br />
Despite those numbers, there was never a moment where you felt that MD wasn't going to come back and win it - even when they were down 72 - 57 with seven minutes left. <br />
<br />
I suspect MD will finish #20 to #22 in the final poll. Looking back on it, that is right where expectations were at the beginning of the season. It was a wild ride from the time they lost to William and Mary through today. <br />
<br />
Here is my updated top eleven worst loss list. <br />
<br />
1. Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook, 24SEP94. <br />
2. Korie Lucious buzzer-beater, 21MAR10. <br />
3. Appalachian State 34 Michigan 32, 01SEP07. <br />
4. Jason Williams erases a 10-point MD lead with 53 seconds left, 27JAN01. <br />
5. Raiders 38 Skins 9, Super Bowl XVIII, 22JAN84. <br />
6. Duke erases MD's 39-17 lead in the Final Four, 31MAR01. <br />
7. OSU 42 Michigan 39, 18NOV06.<br />
8. Webber time-out, 05APR93. <br />
9. Staubach to Tony Hill to keep the Skins home for the holidays, 16DEC79.<br />
10. Indiana 99 MD 64 - last game for King and Buck, 14MAR81. <br />
11. Miami 31 Michigan 30 - after leading 30 - 14 with 5:40 remaining - 106K fans walked out in absolute silence, 17SEP88 (thanks Kevin for adding that one). <br />
<br />
Odds on Stewart to Westbrook moving out of the top spot in my lifetime: 1,000,000 to 1. <br />
<br />
All-Time top five Terps: <br />
1. Bias<br />
2. Dixon<br />
3. Smith<br />
4. Lucas<br />
5. McMillan<br />
<br />
Vasquez goes into the sixth slot. <br />
<br />
This is the best opening two-rounds of the NCAA tournament in recent memory. Jimmer Fredette is my new favorite player. Omar Samhan is a close second. <br />
<br />
Next year's team will be pre-season #3 or #4 in the ACC. Predicted minute distribution:<br />
<br />
- Stoglin (25)<br />
- Bowie (30)<br />
- Tucker (25)<br />
- Mosley (25)<br />
- Williams (30)<br />
<br />
- Gregory (25)<br />
- Padgett (20)<br />
- Mychal Parker (20)<br />
<br />
Hayes ends his career as the best outside shooter not named Juan Dixon in the GW era. Milbourne finished the season strongly.<br />
<br />
=====<br />
<br />
13035TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-30537822889968617232010-03-13T00:53:00.000-08:002010-03-13T14:35:01.140-08:00Glad I Didn't Fly Back<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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Damn. <br />
<br />
Vasquez had a very bad game. Bad to the point of making you say WTF at least four times. Big time forces - especially on the second to last shot (choosing a step-back, off balance three - airball; over a pass to an open Hayes). Vasquez had a little Kelly Leak in him tonight. 2 for 11 from distance. <br />
<br />
Silver lining: Milbourne snapped out of his funk. 15 points, 6 boards, and 5 steals. That, along with the extended rest, could bode well for next week. <br />
<br />
Unbelievable to lose a game when you have a +13 in turn-overs (25 - 12). If it was a football game, they would have flashed a stat after the first seven minutes in the second-half stating that GT hasn't advanced the ball past midfield yet. I have never seen a half-court game break-out for such an extended period of time. <br />
<br />
Mosley (0 for 7 tonight) would do very well in a 6'5 and under league. Come to think of it, he already did very well in that environment in high school. Great defender. He will learn to pick his spots and use his mid-range game. Tonight, he seemed intent on taking it to the rack and getting denied at the rim. <br />
<br />
The best thing about the Jordan Williams vs Derick Favors battle tonight was that we know we get three more years from Williams (who will turn into a 15 and 9 guy next year) and Favors will be playing for Golden State in November. <br />
<br />
GT has first-round NCAA exit written all over them. <br />
<br />
Overall, the defensive intensity was very solid. Vasquez is at his best when he is driving and either dishing inside, shooting the bank shot runner, or kicking out to Hayes or Tucker. He is at his worst when he falls in love with his three. Tonight was one of those nights. <br />
<br />
=====<br />
<br />
On a side note, here was the voting for the ACC rookie of the year: <br />
<br />
Derrick Favors, Ga Tech 45<br />
Jordan Williams, Maryland 6<br />
Durand Scott, Miami 1<br />
Glen Rice Jr., Ga Tech 1<br />
<br />
OK. A few possibilities regarding the Glen Rice Jr. vote. <br />
<br />
a. Someone in the media is an idiot, glanced at the ballot, saw GT next to his name, and assumed that he was the guy everyone is talking about. <br />
b. One of the voters saw only one GT game all year (Clemson on 02MAR); Rice went for 17 and 8. He averaged 5 and 1 for the season. <br />
c. Glen Rice Sr. has joined the media. <br />
<br />
My guess is c. <br />
<br />
=====<br />
<br />
12952TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-61228681911517817122010-03-07T19:18:00.000-08:002010-03-07T19:27:44.154-08:00Regular Season Wrap-Up<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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<br />
RPI: 17<br />
<br />
Projected Seed Scenarios:<br />
--> 23 - 8 (first-round ACC loss): 7 seed<br />
--> 24 - 8 (second-round ACC loss): 6 seed<br />
--> 25 - 8 (championship ACC loss): 4 seed<br />
--> 26 - 7 (ACC Tournament Champs): 3 seed<br />
<br />
Entering ACC play, expectations were basically just make the tournament. Now, everything has been slotted up; the final words on the season will be:<br />
<br />
- First round NCAA loss: Huge disappointment<br />
- Second round NCAA loss: Disappointing season<br />
- Sweet Sixteen loss: This is the expectation; anything beyond is house money. <br />
- Elite Eight loss: Great season. <br />
- Final Four Appearance: Start campaigning for Gary Williams to be elected into the Hall of Fame immediately. Vasquez will be a top five player in the history of the program. <br />
<br />
I can't see any possibility of winning a Final Four game. However, I can see a Final Four appearance as a viable outcome (albeit small; 3% likelihood). <br />
<br />
There is no way Vasquez doesn't get ACC POY after the events of the past five days. Clutch sequence when the UVA game was getting out of control - Vasquez nailed three consecutive three-pointers to keep MD in the game until the Tony Bennett meltdown. Speaking of which, I agreed with his first complaint (ref never should have called a travel when there was no advantage gained given the game situation). However, his second complaint (which set off Mount Bennett), was a clear block. Nice way to take the game away from your seniors. <br />
<br />
Just checked the two preeminent mock NBA draft sites: <br />
<br />
DraftExpress.com: Vasquez is not projected among the top 60 (undrafted status). <br />
NBADraft.net: They have Vasquez going #29 in round 1 to Memphis. <br />
<br />
I am not sure why Milbourne is still listed on NBADraft.net at #51. They must not have watched the past six games (33% FG, 6 ppg, 4 rpg). He is completely lost mentally. Zero confidence in what once was perhaps the best mid-range game in the ACC. When he is not taking the fifteen-foot jumper, it is debatable if MD is better off with him seeing reduced minutes (if they can afford to go with a smaller line-up; which will not be the case against GT on Friday night). <br />
<br />
It is a tribute to Roy Williams that it is a foregone conclusion that UNC will get hammered on Thursday night. It is tough to find a poorer performance by a more highly rated collection of players coming out of high school. They have been "coached down". <br />
<br />
It is time to give Bowie more minutes; lots more. He seems to have found his game and is a huge upgrade defensively whenever he is on the court. <br />
<br />
Gary Williams will win ACC coach of the year. Only debate is who will finish second. <br />
<br />
I am not sure why people are mentioning Jordan Williams as ACC rookie of the year. Favors should be the unanimous selection. <br />
<br />
Here are the ACC players in the mock drafts (with overall selection projections; DraftExpress first; then NBADraft.net): <br />
<br />
- Favors - GT (3 | 6)<br />
- Aminu - WF (5 | 8)<br />
- Davis - UNC (7 | not listed)<br />
- Alabi - FSU (16 | 26)<br />
- Lawal - GT (30 | 17)<br />
- Singler - Duke (34)<br />
- Booker - Clem (39 | 35)<br />
- Thompson - UNC (48 | 58)<br />
- Collins - Mia (58 | 33)<br />
- Scheyer - Duke (59 | not listed)<br />
- Vasquez (not listed | 29)<br />
- Milbourne (not listed | 51)<br />
<br />
Hold on. The fact that Scheyer is included on the DraftExpress list is a clear indication that the author is a Duke grad. There is no freakin' way Scheyer gets selected in June. That explains the omission of Vasquez. <br />
<br />
I still have Vasquez's odds at being in an NBA uniform all next year at 85%. <br />
<br />
I highly recommend Bill Simmons' Book on Basketball - absolute must read. In his 1974 season review, he wrote about Moses Malone and brought up his 1974 decision to change his mind on Maryland and go to the ABA. Imagine Malone playing with Lucas, Davis, Gibson, Boston, Sheppard, etc. Imagine Malone playing with any four guys on a college level as a senior. A final four appearance would have been a lock. Worst turn of events to happen to Lefty prior to 1986.<br />
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12863TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-44780604381662705772010-03-02T23:32:00.000-08:002010-03-04T08:17:45.499-08:00Vasquez - ACC POY<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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RPI: 25<br />
Record against Top 50 RPI: 4 - 3<br />
Bad losses: William and Mary (60) and Cincy (58)<br />
Seeding possibilities:<br />
- 26 - 7 (win out); 2 seed<br />
- 25 - 8; 3 seed<br />
- 24 - 9; 4 seed<br />
- 23 - 9; 5 seed<br />
- 22 - 9; 7 seed (worst-case scenario) <br />
<br />
Albert King (1980)<br />
Len Bias (1985)<br />
Len Bias (1986)<br />
Joe Smith (1995)<br />
Juan Dixon (2002)<br />
Grevis Vasquez (2010)<br />
<br />
POY is a lock barring a total meltdown in the final two games. <br />
<br />
Here is the first team all ACC (conference game stats) projection: <br />
<br />
- Vasquez (22 ppg, 6.9 apg, 44% FG, 83% FT, 40% 3PFG, 2.0 assist to TO ratio)<br />
- Scheyer (19 ppg, 4.6 apg, 39% FG, 85% FT, 38% 3PFG, 2.0 spg, 2.1 ratio)<br />
- Singler (18 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 41% FG, 42% 3PFG)<br />
- Delaney (22 ppg, 4.8 apg, 84% FT, 1.5 spg, 1.4 ratio)<br />
- Aminu (16 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 44% FG, 1.6 spg, 1.7 bpg)<br />
<br />
Second team: <br />
<br />
- Booker (16 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 52% FG, 1.8 bpg)<br />
- Landesberg (18 ppg, 44% FG, 87% FT)<br />
- Nolan Smith (17 ppg, 43% FG, 81% FT)<br />
- Favors (11 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg) <br />
- Alabi (11 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.0 bpg)<br />
<br />
MD has put together impressive team stats: <br />
<br />
- First in scoring (78; Duke is next at 73)<br />
- First in FG% (46.3; GT is next at 43.8)<br />
- First in 3PFG (42.5; GT is next at 38.4)<br />
- First in APG (16.8; BC is next at 13.6)<br />
- First in assist to TO ratio (1.4; UVA is next at 1.1)<br />
- Second in FG% defense (39.7; WF is first at 39.5)<br />
- Second in scoring margin (7.6)<br />
- Fourth in FT (73%)<br />
- Fifth in 3PFG defense (30.6; Duke is first at 23.5)<br />
<br />
The most surprising stat is the 3PFG percentage. At the start of the season, I would have bet big money that MD would end up considerably south of 40%. <br />
<br />
Duke is on a 9 game winning streak in conference. MD has five wins in a row. The key stat tomorrow night will be MD's ability to handle the Duke pressure and deal with the officiating. ACC refs have a Duke bias. Not up for debate. It is a fact. <br />
<br />
GW needs to have Gregory and Williams on the court together for extended minutes. One thing we learned 2.5 weeks ago; Milbourne cannot guard Zoubek (who is this year's ACC version of Dave Neal; most improved player). <br />
<br />
MD 74<br />
Duke 69<br />
<br />
=====<br />
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The Milbourne family would like to send their appreciation to Cory Alexander for giving Mosley the blame for the inbounds pass at the end of regulation on Saturday.<br />
<br />
I am guessing that Tim Brandt would like to point out that Vasquez's 41 points against VT were the most he has scored since he had 16 against Miami on January 26.<br />
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12722TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-44252508224905090792010-02-25T13:58:00.000-08:002010-02-25T13:58:58.145-08:00Clemson - MD<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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NCAA Tournament Odds: 99%<br />
Likely Seed: 5 <br />
Vasquez playing in the NBA all year next season: 85%<br />
Keith Booth calling another time-out this year: 0.000001%<br />
<br />
Why my brain hurts. . . <br />
<br />
For those of you listening to the broadcast last night, here is the comment made by Brandt on two occasions: <br />
<br />
"Sean Mosley has 13 points tonight; the most he has had since he scored ten points against Miami on January 26." <br />
<br />
Hmmm. That would be an interesting comment if, and only if, thirteen was less than ten. <br />
<br />
On another topic, here is a GW quote from the GT post-game press conference: <br />
<br />
"For anybody who thinks that he doesn't belong in the top 5 to 7 players that have ever been here they don't know the game very well."<br />
<br />
A few comments: <br />
<br />
- I thought I knew the game very well. <br />
- Here is Vasquez's post season resume. . . ready?. . . one win over a weak Cal team. That is it. <br />
- Five to seven? Not a chance. <br />
- Who are you throwing off this bus? <br />
<br />
- Bias<br />
- Dixon<br />
- Lucas<br />
- Smith<br />
- McMillan<br />
- Williams<br />
- Elmore<br />
<br />
I could keep going. . . Blake and Baxter are ahead of him. <br />
<br />
Barring an elite 8 trip next month, this list is not going to change.TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-14105908272345667322010-02-20T18:02:00.000-08:002010-02-24T00:23:31.648-08:00MD - GT Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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Wow. <br />
<br />
That was an awesome game from start to finish. NCAA tournament-type atmosphere. The answer to the question is Drew Nicholas. <br />
<br />
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQhNDWnlflE<br />
<br />
Seven years ago. The question is when was the last time MD had a more significant buzzer-beater to win a game. The Nicholas shot had a higher degree of difficulty. <br />
<br />
Tucker entered the game with four minutes remaining based solely on a bad inbounds pass from Mosley. Great pass from Hayes on the play. Tucker was clutch. <br />
<br />
Gani Lawal was 2 for 8 at the line. <br />
<br />
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmmnA8WVqW8<br />
<br />
In watching the video, it is clear that the time-out call was made by Keith Booth. GW was immediately irate, turned his back to the court to confront Booth, and seemed to shout, you never do that. Then, he looked at the court and realized that Vasquez's shot had banked in. This added fuel to the fire. He then swung one arm in a pointing motion at Booth and then did the same with his other arm (backpedaling as he did so - reminiscent of Carmelo at the Garden a few years back). I don't think he made contact. Nonetheless, I am guessing that Booth will be leaving the time-out calls to GW the rest of the way. All will be forgotten after the Tucker 26-footer. <br />
<br />
Another event that is likely to be forgotten. . . Vasquez's floater from the lane with 15 seconds left to put MD up by one. <br />
<br />
Another? How about the put-back by Jordan Williams late in the game? Or, the Eric Hayes drive with the shot high off the backboard? Or, his routine three-pointer with a minute left? <br />
<br />
Four lead changes in the final 23 seconds. <br />
<br />
MD now stands at 9 and 3 in the league. <br />
<br />
NCAA Tournament Chances: 95%<br />
Vasquez in the NBA next year chances (full season): 90%<br />
Pre-game RPI: 38<br />
<br />
Four tough ACC games remaining (RPI shown below): <br />
<br />
Clemson (36)<br />
at VT (45)<br />
Duke (3)<br />
at UVA (110)<br />
<br />
Winning two of the four seems likely. A win against Clemson next week would lock up a first-round bye in Greensboro. <br />
<br />
When was the last time MD was actually unfortunate in not being able to play UNC twice? Tar Heel nation is spiraling with an RPI of 82 after losing 9 of their past 11 games. Nine straight if you remove NC State from the equation. <br />
<br />
UNC's NIT Tournament Chances: coin flip<br />
<br />
Nice. <br />
<br />
There is no way Favors returns to GT next year. Top five NBA lottery pick lock. Maybe, top two. <br />
<br />
=====<br />
12,512TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-13508663395847289792010-02-10T21:24:00.000-08:002010-02-10T22:49:59.357-08:00State of North Carolina<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">
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This team has a decent chance at missing the NIT after being ranked #4 in the nation to start the year. I am surprised that more isn't being made of the job that Roy Williams is turning in this year. He was practically asleep on the sideline last Sunday as the Terps were putting a 21-point beatdown on the Heels. Speaking of 21-point (or more) ACC victories, there have been four thus far in the ACC; the Terps have three (NC State, Miami, and UNC; the fourth could have easily been at BC which ended up as a sixteen-point victory). <br />
<br />
The only other is GT over Wake by 21 at GT. <br />
<br />
The Heels don't play defense. Maryland hasn't played an ACC team that gave more open looks from distance in a long time. <br />
<br />
Here is a breakdown of UNC's recent recruiting classes: <br />
<br />
2008: <br />
Zeller (ranked #7 in the nation)<br />
Davis (#11)<br />
Drew (#29)<br />
<br />
2009:<br />
Henson (#6)<br />
Strickland (#27)<br />
McDonald (#32)<br />
Wear (#36)<br />
Wear (#37)<br />
<br />
This is next year's class thus far:<br />
Barnes (#1)<br />
Bullock (#16)<br />
Marshall (#22)<br />
<br />
McAdoo is already committed for 2011 (ranked #3); Hairston is #16. <br />
<br />
For the Terps over the same timeframe:<br />
<br />
2007: DuPree #65<br />
2008: Mosley #40<br />
2009: Nobody (I am not sure how Jordan Williams didn't make the top 100 list)<br />
2010: Parker (SG, #40) and Stoglin (PG, #98)<br />
<br />
If you think this is insignificant, check out the 2007 rankings. The top 50 is a very impressive list; the next 50 is not (yes, that includes Braxton DuPree). <br />
<br />
1 - 5: Love, Gordon, Mayo, Singler, and Rose. Four lottery picks and a future first-rounder. <br />
<br />
6 - 10: Nolan Smith, Austin Freeman, Beasley, Patterson, and Calathes. Still not sure how top in-state talent like Freeman and Beasley don't give College Park consideration. Patterson is projected at #9 in June. <br />
<br />
11 - 15: Corey Fisher, Koufos, Aldrich, Hickson, and Stokes. Hickson is playing well in Cleveland. I still remember his drop-step dunk in a half-court set at MD three years ago; the type of dunk that you had to watch five times with TiVo right after it happened. <br />
<br />
16 - 20: King, Greene, Blake Griffin, Lucas, and Moore. #1 pick in the draft at #18 overall. Moore has had a very solid career in West Lafayette. Taylor King couldn't cut it in Durham. <br />
<br />
21 - 25: Harden, Lawal, Flynn, Anderson, and Jordan. Harden and Flynn were lottery picks. Jordan is playing on the Clips. Lawal and Anderson are projected in the mid first round in June. <br />
<br />
26 - 30: Wright, Daye, Legion, Randolph, and Blair. Blair is starting for the Spurs; absolute steal in round 2 last year. Randolph will put up huge numbers once he escapes from Don Nelson. <br />
<br />
31 - 35: Johnson, Pope, Alabi, Tucker, and Hillman. Nothing impressive other than Alabi. <br />
<br />
36 - 40: Lucas, Robinson, Harris, Bayless, and Diebler. Bayless was the fourth pick in the draft two years ago. Kalin Lucas was Big Ten POY last year. Harris is a future first-rounder. <br />
<br />
49: Evan Turner; projected at #2 in June. <br />
<br />
Duke on Saturday. Keep this in mind; they lost by 14 at NC State. They only won by 3 at BC.<br />
<br />
=====<br />
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12,371TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-68552001892566951472010-02-04T23:42:00.000-08:002010-02-05T00:14:35.820-08:00MD - FSU Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript"><br /></script><br /><script type="text/javascript"><br />_uacct = "UA-3795713-1";<br />urchinTracker();<br /></script><br /><br />RPI: 52 (before the game)<br />NCAA Tournament Odds: 70% (unchanged from last update)<br />Vasquez in an NBA Uniform Next Year Odds (entire year): 30% (down 5% due to being locked up by someone named Tanner Smith)<br /><br />Very nice win. <br /><br />Gregory had the biggest play of the game in taking the charge at the end. The ref made a tough call in that situation; but, on replay, he clearly had it right. I thought the charge that Gregory took earlier in the game was a block. <br /><br />Most bizarre stat I heard all night: Gregory (87% from the line). He is now 22 for 25 on the season. Just have him go in there and head fake. Damn. Clutch throws at the end. In case you are wondering, he was 54% from the line last year. <br /><br />Vasquez had a very solid overall game with 23, 7, 7. He cut his turnovers down to 5 (from 9 at Clemson). One shimmy is one too many. <br /><br />MD out-rebounded FSU and also had more blocks. Very impressive given the size differential. <br /><br />GW made an excellent call at the end going for the foul instead of allowing a three-pointer. Nice to see him play the percentages. Also nice to see that Chris Singleton forgot you had to draw iron. <br /><br />Jordan Williams has arrived. No more comments on his vertical. Four dunks. He is now playing like he cares about the outcome of the game. <br /><br />Milbourne has been clutch all year. He is the best mid-range shooter MD has had since Juan Dixon. He routinely knocks down 17-footers with hands in his face. Lately, he has shown a surprising ability to block shots at the rim. Impressive all around. NBA draft net has him at #51; Vasquez is projected at #44. 17 of the 30 second-rounders in last year's draft are currently in an NBA uniform. <br /><br />Hayes is in his fourth year learning how to dribble with his left hand. Shaky. Still needs to shoot more. <br /><br />Bowie will have visions of being posterized by Singleton for a long time. I am still going on record that MD is a better team when he is in the starting line-up getting 25 minutes per game. He is ineffective getting 10 to 15 minutes per game knowing there is a quick hook. <br /><br />I forgot to mention the departure of Kim / Choi from College Park. We hardly knew ye. Although, thanks to being reminded 82 times during broadcasts, I am fairly confident that he was the first Korean player ever to play D1 basketball. <br /><br />=====<br /><br />12316TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-20774084293974511282010-01-24T21:28:00.000-08:002010-01-24T22:23:39.941-08:00MD - NC State Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript"><br /></script><br /><script type="text/javascript"><br />_uacct = "UA-3795713-1";<br />urchinTracker();<br /></script><br /><br />RPI: 51<br />NCAA Tournament Odds: 70%<br />Vasquez in an NBA Uniform Next Year Odds: 35%<br /><br />This team has shown steady improvement over the past two weeks. <br /><br />Vasquez has been very solid since early December. Tucker seems to be the X-factor. Vinnie Johnson-like. I am still not sure why Bowie can't get more time on the court. He is a huge defensive upgrade and has the ability to penetrate and create opportunities. Jordan Williams has also steadily improved. I am still not sure if he has a double-digit vertical. I would like to see Padget get more minutes. Hayes still needs to shoot more. Milbourne has played very well. Gregory fills his role nicely. Mosley continues to surprise on the boards and doesn't take bad shots. <br /><br />First place in the ACC means nothing after four games. The FSU win was their only win over a team with an RPI south of 86. They are 3 - 1 in the ACC and I think it will take ten wins (20 overall) to get into the tournament. That would mean 10 - 6 in the regular season (to get a lock invite); or, 9 - 7 with one ACC tournament win. <br /><br />Here are the remaining 12 games; location and RPI shown below:<br /><br />Miami (H) - 99<br />Clemson (A) - 43<br />FSU (A) - 47<br />UNC (H) - 70<br />UVA (H) - 93<br />Duke (A) - 3<br />NC State (A) - 86<br />Georgia Tech (H) - 28<br />Clemson (H) - 43<br />VT (A) - 72<br />Duke (H) - 3<br />UVA (A) - 93<br /><br />It looks like must wins are Miami (H), UVA (H), and NC State (A). <br /><br />The only sure losses appear to be at Clemson and at Duke. <br /><br />That means that they must win four of the remaining seven. <br /><br />I am predicting 9 - 7 in the ACC with an ACC Tournament finals appearance to lock up the NCAA bid (7 seed). <br /><br />Losses thus far (with RPIs): <br /><br />- Cincy (48)<br />- Wisconsin (10)<br />- Villanova (4)<br />- William and Mary (44)<br />- Wake Forest (21)<br /><br />=====<br />12214 - RPIs referenced from www.realtimerpi.comTerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-71981962556076603282009-12-06T22:02:00.000-08:002009-12-06T22:48:29.932-08:00MD - Villanova Comments- NCAA Tournament Bid likelihood: 40%<br />- Vasquez in an NBA uniform next year likelihood: 7%<br /><br />OK. It is time to say what needs to be said. . . This is no longer Greivis' team. We are eight games into the season. Three consecutive bad games is a funk; seven out of eight games is clear evidence of an erosion in skills (hippmorgaritis).<br /><br />Let's look at the Greivis' numbers over the past four games (ignoring the first four against weak competition; although Indiana comes very close to fitting that description):<br /><br />- 4.5 turnovers per game (just above the 4.4 rate that led the country two years ago; it was 2.8 last year)<br />- 18 of 53 from the field (34%)<br />- 5 for 18 from distance (28%)<br />- 3.5 boards per game<br />- 5.3 assists per game<br />- 18 points per game<br /><br />OK; it is tough to call 18-5-3 an erosion in skills. However, it is not an "efficient" 18 ppg; it is a forced 18 ppg.<br /><br />On the bright side, the team learned a lot tonight about Sean Mosley. 26 points. . . 3 of 4 from distance (he had hit 8 in his 42 career games prior to tonight). . . . 11 of 14 from the floor. His game has significantly improved over last year.<br /><br />While I still don't think Jordan Williams has a double-digit vertical, I do think that I may need to retract a few of my comments in my earlier post. He played extremely well. 19 and 12. He even made 9 of 13 from the line (after entering the game hitting 10 of 25 for the season). Nothing like a 9 for 13 performance to get you back to .500 for the season.<br /><br />Hayes took 13 shots and made six. He hit five of his nine three-point attempts. 4 assists and two turn-overs. Very solid game. 13 shots needs to be the minimum we see from him going forward. He even drew a foul on a drive tonight. He is money at the line. <br /><br />Cliff Tucker did not play well.<br /><br />Milbourne had his worst game of the season.<br /><br />It is going to be hard to find minutes for Adrian Bowie. He doesn't seem like the type of player that will be productive in limited minutes.<br /><script type="text/javascript"><br />_uacct = "UA-3795713-1";<br />urchinTracker();<br /></script>TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-2377267129271785402009-12-01T23:22:00.000-08:002009-12-02T07:35:20.550-08:00MD - Indiana Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript"><br /></script>- I could be wrong. . . but, I think Choi is sporting a women's bouffant hair-cut.<br /><br />- Tonight was a must win. Indiana is horrible. The line was MD by five; should have covered more easily.<br /><br />- At this point, the only positive I can think of when describing Jordan Williams is that he is tall. It is a matter of time before Padgett gets more playing time. Padgett has upside potential due to his athleticism. Williams is slow and appears to have a single-digit vertical.<br /><br />- Vasquez's shot selection remains suspect. With tonight's 4 - 14, he is now 33% for the year - 26% from distance. How about a few more passes and a few less forces?<br /><br />- There has to be a way to get Bowie more minutes. Give him Choi's eight minutes and move Mosley to the four when Milbourne is out. Choi should not be playing division 1 basketball.<br /><br />- Milbourne and Mosley played very well tonight.<br /><script type="text/javascript"><br />_uacct = "UA-3795713-1";<br />urchinTracker();<br /></script>TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-23728866916126828442009-11-25T20:46:00.000-08:002009-11-25T23:32:03.248-08:002009 - 2010 Opening Comments<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript"><br /></script><span style="font-family: arial;">Here are a few opening comments after the Maui tournament: <br /><br />- Not much of an interior defensive presence; a zone can hide this deficiency - however, MD is less than stellar in defending the three in their zone defense. This will be a challenge throughout the year. <br />- Chances at making the tournament: less than 50%. <br />- Chances that Vasquez declares for the draft and ends up in Europe: 75%<br /><br />=====<br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-family: arial;">Vasquez</span><span style="font-family: arial;">: Showed signs of regaining his shooting touch in the second half of the Wisconsin game. . . showed signs of senior season Exreehippaitis (aka Terencemorrisaitis and Travisgarrisonaitis) through the first five games. . . we need less of Vasquez from the perimeter and more of Vasquez slashing and kicking out to Hayes and Tucker. . . his shot selection has somehow worsened over last year. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Padgett</span>: I like what I see so far. . . nice drop step. . . strong game inside. . . albeit, he is lost at the free throw line (3 for 12). <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Williams</span>: Soft. . . what else can you say when you see Wisconsin's center run straight at him on a one on one break and go right by him for a lay-up. . . plays smaller than he is. . . 5 for 14 from the line in Maui. . . not sure how he scored 38 ppg last year in high school. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Hayes</span>: I have been saying it for three years and will continue to say it in his fourth year; he needs to shoot more. . . a lot more. . . catch and shoot threes; not catch, dribble laterally, and shoot. . . not a great passer. . . needs to learn how to drive and draw fouls. . . disappears during games for long stretches. . . very solid game against Wisconsin. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Milbourne</span>: Steady. . . pure jump shot. . . playing out of position on defense - exposed by Wisconsin inside. . . ACC power forwards will be circling the dates when they play MD on the calendar. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Mosley</span>: Best player on the team through six games. . . trash collector on offense. . . nice touch on the fade away. . . great rebounder for his size; does damage on the offensive glass and creates space on his put-backs. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bowie</span>: Regression. . . tentative. . . needs more minutes. . . quickest player on the team. . . great slasher. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Tucker</span>: Happiest person on the team when it was announced that Lance Stephenson was no longer being recruited. . . tweener without a true position.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Gregory</span>: I am not sure he is that much better than Padgett. . . need him back just for depth. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></span>TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-38694462568123319682009-06-29T21:43:00.000-07:002009-06-29T23:23:49.199-07:002009 NBA Draft ReviewHere are a few comments from last week's draft:<br /><br />1. NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver must have a running clock in his office counting off the hours each year until the draft. I don't think that there is anyone else who could show that kind of enthusiasm for the second round. <br /><br />2. Johnny Flynn introduced us to a new region of the US that gets very little publicity stating that the Syracuse - UCONN overtime game allowed both the "mid coast" and west coast to see Big East basketball. Geography is tougher than you think. <br /><br />3. Sure sign that you are not headed for a long NBA career. . . when Adam Silver announces your name and then says, ". . . who is ACTUALLY here with us tonight." The way he emphasizes "actually" is his way of saying have a nice flight back to Europe. <br /><br />4. Wing spans were mentioned more during the draft than ever before. Bilas is a big believer in using wing span as a predictor of NBA success. I am waiting for the first under six foot guard to have a wing span over seven feet. It is a matter of time. <br /><br />5. Adam Silver announced the Wizards trade of Jermaine Taylor to the Rockets for cash. He had the look of someone saying, "The Wizards, being the pathetic franchise that they are, are actually trading their early second round pick for money!" This was the first of three separate moves made by the Rockets in picking up second round picks for cash. <br /><br />6. Tyreke Evans will be a better pro than James Harden. <br /><br />7. The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to have spent about five minutes preparing for the draft. Why draft Rubio if you are not absolutely certain he would sign? Their president (David Kahn) called him "transformational". I call him "not playing in Minnesota". <br /><br />8. Curry will be a better pro than Flynn. <br /><br />9. Glad to see that David Stern finally gave up on hyping the WNBA. He didn't mention the WNBA during this year's draft for the first time since its inception. <br /><br />10. Toronto, Milwaukee, and New Jersey made a mistake by not selecting Gerald Henderson. <br /><br />11. Sam Young (Mem) and Dujuan Blair (SA) went at 36 and 37 in the draft. Every draft ranking had them much higher. Blair is a steal. I doubt Young's head fake will have much success in the NBA. <br /><br />12. The Lakers will regret taking the wrong Patrick (Beverley; instead of Mills). Mills will be an NBA starter within three years. The Lakers must have realized this 30 minutes later when they traded Beverley to Miami. Mills will have a better career than Collison (who was selected at 21 to the Hornets). Mills made a huge financial mistake by not returning to St. Mary's. <br /><br />13. Doris Burke should take over for Stuart Scott next year. Scott adds nothing to the telecast other than crooked glasses. Doris Burke remains the most underrated announcer in sports. <br /><br />14. San Antonio got a steal with Jack McClinton as the 51st pick. Adding Richard Jefferson, Blair, and McClinton makes San Antonio the second best team in the West. <br /><br />15. Denver made a great trade in picking up Ty Lawson; his overall game significantly improved last year. <br /><br />16. Taylor Griffin should not have been selected. Second year in a row that Phoenix made a bad pick by taking a brother of a star player (Robin Lopez). <br /><br />17. Grevis Vasquez will be a lottery pick in next year's draft. <br /><br />18. So will Manny Harris. <br /><br />19. The moves made by Orlando (Vince Carter) and Cleveland (Shaq) put them significantly ahead of all other teams in the East. Ryan Anderson (also included in the Carter trade) will contribute next year for the Magic. <br /><br />20. If the Warriors trade Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli for Amare Stoudamire, they will be back in the playoffs next year. If they also trade Maggette for a big man, they will make it to the second round. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><script type="text/javascript"><br />_uacct = "UA-3795713-1";<br />urchinTracker();<br /></script>TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3880033018952507566.post-3437403170122262772009-01-14T21:57:00.000-08:002009-01-14T23:01:11.845-08:00MD - Miami Notes<script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript"><br /></script>Brutal. <br /><br />Up by 17 with just over 12 minutes left, everyone on the MD bench had to be having flashbacks to the Clemson game last March when MD blew a 20 point lead in the final ten minutes. GW was deliberate with the offense from the 12 minute mark to the five minute mark when Miami cut it to five. You could sense that MD wanted to bleed the clock; I can't fault the strategy. Bowie was able to bail MD out on offense on two separate occasions during that stretch and Miami got hot from distance - red hot on decent defense. <br /><br />Jack McClinton has murdered Maryland for four straight years. How do you let that guy get an open look on that last shot? Everybody in the gym knew that he was going to run off two picks on that curl; not sure why Neal didn't hedge. If he does switch, Collins gets the ball on the block and gets fouled. Much better scenario. <br /><br />There were bright spots to come out of this game. First and foremost, watching Adrian freakin' Bowie turn into Isiah Thomas. He was unstoppable (23 pts, 5 boards, 3 assists, and 2 steals). It took Miami 35 minutes to figure out he was left-handed. Slasher. <br /><br />Vasquez played very well (15 pts, 6 assists, 5 boards, and 2 steals). He had two very good looks in the final seconds and rimmed out on both shots. One of the keys to MD's start was Vasquez penetrating and kicking out for open looks. He focused on getting others involved early. He didn't attempt a FT (leading the nation at 94% with 35 in a row). <br /><br />Milbourne was solid (8 pts, 7 boards, 4 huge blocks, and a steal). He was signficantly undersized against Miami's front line and was able to disrupt their inside game. <br /><br />I am not sure why Hayes went to sleep after starting off with five early points. He ended up taking only four shots in 27 minutes. That may be the most significant stat of the game. MD will not win when he is not part of the offense. He needs to figure out how to draw fouls on penetration when he is not getting open shots.<br /><br />Dave Neal played 25 minutes (1 of 6 from the floor). We could have used Burney in this game - we need him back soon. <br /><br />When Mosley missed that dunk in the first-half, you had to wonder if those two points would matter at the end. He played 19 minutes and didn't do much statistically. He is still trying to figure out how to score on the college level. <br /><br />Dupree looks lost out there - absolutely no confidence in his game. His four-foot wide-open hook shot missed by two feet. My remedy? Let Dupree play a few games in the UM intramural league to remember how to dominate a game. Either that or make it a policy that GW is only allowed to scream at him once every ten minutes. <br /><br />kenpom note: MD is #318 in D1 in the category FTA/FGA (0.29). This underscores MD's problems inside. As a reference, Wake is #8 at 0.49. Tonight: 6 FTA and 57 FGA (0.11). <br /><br />14 Games remain in the regular season. 12 - 4 (1 - 1) right now. <br /><br />Sure wins: UVA-H, BC-H, MIA-H, and VT-H<br />Key games: FSU-A, GT-A, Duke-H, NCST-A, and UVA-A<br />Sure losses: Duke-A, UNC-A, Clem-A, UNC-H, and WF-H<br /><br />The absolute best-case scenario is 20 - 10 (9 - 7). Likelihood: 5%.<br />Next best scenario 19 - 11 (8 - 8). Likelihood: 25%.<br />18 - 12 (7 - 9): Likelihood: 50%<br />17 - 13 (6 - 10): Likelihood: 15%<br />16 - 14 (5 - 11): Likelihood: 5%<br /><br />Overall Likelihood of making the Tournament: Coin Flip. <br /><br />Why do I have the feeling that the Morgan State game will ultimately be a killer? <br /><br /><br /><script type="text/javascript"><br />_uacct = "UA-3795713-1";<br />urchinTracker();<br /></script>TerpFanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01940905922512232780noreply@blogger.com0