Regular Season Wrap-Up

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RPI: 17

Projected Seed Scenarios:
--> 23 - 8 (first-round ACC loss): 7 seed
--> 24 - 8 (second-round ACC loss): 6 seed
--> 25 - 8 (championship ACC loss): 4 seed
--> 26 - 7 (ACC Tournament Champs): 3 seed

Entering ACC play, expectations were basically just make the tournament. Now, everything has been slotted up; the final words on the season will be:

- First round NCAA loss: Huge disappointment
- Second round NCAA loss: Disappointing season
- Sweet Sixteen loss: This is the expectation; anything beyond is house money.
- Elite Eight loss: Great season.
- Final Four Appearance: Start campaigning for Gary Williams to be elected into the Hall of Fame immediately. Vasquez will be a top five player in the history of the program.

I can't see any possibility of winning a Final Four game. However, I can see a Final Four appearance as a viable outcome (albeit small; 3% likelihood).

There is no way Vasquez doesn't get ACC POY after the events of the past five days. Clutch sequence when the UVA game was getting out of control - Vasquez nailed three consecutive three-pointers to keep MD in the game until the Tony Bennett meltdown. Speaking of which, I agreed with his first complaint (ref never should have called a travel when there was no advantage gained given the game situation). However, his second complaint (which set off Mount Bennett), was a clear block. Nice way to take the game away from your seniors.

Just checked the two preeminent mock NBA draft sites:

DraftExpress.com: Vasquez is not projected among the top 60 (undrafted status).
NBADraft.net: They have Vasquez going #29 in round 1 to Memphis.

I am not sure why Milbourne is still listed on NBADraft.net at #51. They must not have watched the past six games (33% FG, 6 ppg, 4 rpg). He is completely lost mentally. Zero confidence in what once was perhaps the best mid-range game in the ACC. When he is not taking the fifteen-foot jumper, it is debatable if MD is better off with him seeing reduced minutes (if they can afford to go with a smaller line-up; which will not be the case against GT on Friday night).

It is a tribute to Roy Williams that it is a foregone conclusion that UNC will get hammered on Thursday night. It is tough to find a poorer performance by a more highly rated collection of players coming out of high school. They have been "coached down".

It is time to give Bowie more minutes; lots more. He seems to have found his game and is a huge upgrade defensively whenever he is on the court.

Gary Williams will win ACC coach of the year. Only debate is who will finish second.

I am not sure why people are mentioning Jordan Williams as ACC rookie of the year. Favors should be the unanimous selection.

Here are the ACC players in the mock drafts (with overall selection projections; DraftExpress first; then NBADraft.net):

- Favors - GT (3 | 6)
- Aminu - WF (5 | 8)
- Davis - UNC (7 | not listed)
- Alabi - FSU (16 | 26)
- Lawal - GT (30 | 17)
- Singler - Duke (34)
- Booker - Clem (39 | 35)
- Thompson - UNC (48 | 58)
- Collins - Mia (58 | 33)
- Scheyer - Duke (59 | not listed)
- Vasquez (not listed | 29)
- Milbourne (not listed | 51)

Hold on. The fact that Scheyer is included on the DraftExpress list is a clear indication that the author is a Duke grad. There is no freakin' way Scheyer gets selected in June. That explains the omission of Vasquez.

I still have Vasquez's odds at being in an NBA uniform all next year at 85%.

I highly recommend Bill Simmons' Book on Basketball - absolute must read. In his 1974 season review, he wrote about Moses Malone and brought up his 1974 decision to change his mind on Maryland and go to the ABA. Imagine Malone playing with Lucas, Davis, Gibson, Boston, Sheppard, etc. Imagine Malone playing with any four guys on a college level as a senior. A final four appearance would have been a lock. Worst turn of events to happen to Lefty prior to 1986.

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Vasquez - ACC POY

RPI: 25
Record against Top 50 RPI: 4 - 3
Bad losses: William and Mary (60) and Cincy (58)
Seeding possibilities:
- 26 - 7 (win out); 2 seed
- 25 - 8; 3 seed
- 24 - 9; 4 seed
- 23 - 9; 5 seed
- 22 - 9; 7 seed (worst-case scenario)

Albert King (1980)
Len Bias (1985)
Len Bias (1986)
Joe Smith (1995)
Juan Dixon (2002)
Grevis Vasquez (2010)

POY is a lock barring a total meltdown in the final two games.

Here is the first team all ACC (conference game stats) projection:

- Vasquez (22 ppg, 6.9 apg, 44% FG, 83% FT, 40% 3PFG, 2.0 assist to TO ratio)
- Scheyer (19 ppg, 4.6 apg, 39% FG, 85% FT, 38% 3PFG, 2.0 spg, 2.1 ratio)
- Singler (18 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 41% FG, 42% 3PFG)
- Delaney (22 ppg, 4.8 apg, 84% FT, 1.5 spg, 1.4 ratio)
- Aminu (16 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 44% FG, 1.6 spg, 1.7 bpg)

Second team:

- Booker (16 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 52% FG, 1.8 bpg)
- Landesberg (18 ppg, 44% FG, 87% FT)
- Nolan Smith (17 ppg, 43% FG, 81% FT)
- Favors (11 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg)
- Alabi (11 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.0 bpg)

MD has put together impressive team stats:

- First in scoring (78; Duke is next at 73)
- First in FG% (46.3; GT is next at 43.8)
- First in 3PFG (42.5; GT is next at 38.4)
- First in APG (16.8; BC is next at 13.6)
- First in assist to TO ratio (1.4; UVA is next at 1.1)
- Second in FG% defense (39.7; WF is first at 39.5)
- Second in scoring margin (7.6)
- Fourth in FT (73%)
- Fifth in 3PFG defense (30.6; Duke is first at 23.5)

The most surprising stat is the 3PFG percentage. At the start of the season, I would have bet big money that MD would end up considerably south of 40%.

Duke is on a 9 game winning streak in conference. MD has five wins in a row. The key stat tomorrow night will be MD's ability to handle the Duke pressure and deal with the officiating. ACC refs have a Duke bias. Not up for debate. It is a fact.

GW needs to have Gregory and Williams on the court together for extended minutes. One thing we learned 2.5 weeks ago; Milbourne cannot guard Zoubek (who is this year's ACC version of Dave Neal; most improved player).

MD 74
Duke 69

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The Milbourne family would like to send their appreciation to Cory Alexander for giving Mosley the blame for the inbounds pass at the end of regulation on Saturday.

I am guessing that Tim Brandt would like to point out that Vasquez's 41 points against VT were the most he has scored since he had 16 against Miami on January 26.

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