MD - NC State Comments

NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 77%

That game was painful to watch. Storming the court? WTF? I can see that if it was sheer elation that the game ended. That was a win against a #14 team in which MD was favored by one to win the game.

 ESPN Bracketology has MD as one of the first four teams not to make the tournament.

KenPom has MD at #56 overall. 338th toughest schedule (out of 347).

MD's RPI was 86 prior to tonight's game. That needs to be sub 40 to be fairly confident in making the tournament.

 Jay Bilas is the best color commentator in college basketball. Liked his comment on the fact that nobody was going to be putting the tape of tonight's game in a vault for future generations to watch.

MD's best win prior to tonight was a win over Stony Brook (#92). Not the Stony Brook where legends played hoop near Belt Junior High. The win at Northwestern seemed like a good win at the time; not anymore as NW has gone into a tailspin.

Turgeon wasn't happy during the post-game interview with MD's ability to run plays after time-outs. I haven't been happy with the crappy half court offense he is running. Bring back the GW Flex. MD is not getting many open looks.

MD's starting line-up should be:  Allen, Faust, Wells, Mitchell, and Len.  

MD is 14 - 3 right now; 2 - 2 in conference. 14 ACC games left.

Likely Wins (7): BC, Wake, UVA, Clemson, at GT, at Wake, at UVA

50/50 Games (4): at VT, Duke, UNC, at BC

Likely Losses (3): at UNC, at Duke, at FSU

That means 23 - 8 (11 - 7) heading into the ACC tournament. I know it sounds crazy. But, in that scenario, they would still need one tournament win to get in. That is how bad the ACC is this year.

Possibilities:
- Sweet 16 loss:  Fantastic season; would have exceed expectations
- Final 32 loss:  This is the expectation.
- First round loss:  Less than expected.
- Not making the tournament:  Far short of expectations. 

Player comments on what I have seen thus far:

Len: Listed at #4 overall in the DraftExpress projection for the June draft. . . I can't see that happening. . . Significant regression offensively. . . Struggles to score. . . Does not play well with back to the basket. . . No go-to move. . . On pace to set a record for most times having his own shots blocked despite being 7'1. . . Outstanding defensively in making defenders alter shots.  .  . For MD to have a chance to make it to the final 32, it is a requirement that he finds a way to score from the post. 

Wells: Needs to shoot more. . . 56% FG for the season. . . MD's best scorer.

Allen: MD's best 3-point shooter not named Aronhalt. . . 39% on season. . . Like Bilas said, he is MD's best player in being able to penetrate and get to the rim.

Faust: Shooting 38% for the season. . . not what was expected. . . major shooting slump. . . needs to use size and draw fouls on slashes to the hoop. . . streaky. . . 9 ppg this year; same as last year. . . in fact, stats are almost identical to last year across the board (37% FG last year).

Mitchell: Give him back his minutes. . . Only played nine minutes tonight. . . Not sure why. . . Has some Lonnie Baxter in his offensive game. . . He will be back into the starting line-up within the next three games. . . very solid inside game. . . surprisingly athletic for his Dunkin Donut physique.

Cleare: Can dunk near the bucket. . . gets rebounds. . . moves people around. . . Ugly form on shot. . . don't want to see him taking shots outside of five feet.

Aronhalt: Why can't we get this guy more open looks? . . . He needs to show the ability to put the ball on the floor after catches and create shots for others when over-played.

Layman: Disappointment so far. . . had much higher expectations. . . 37% FG. . . 26% 3PFG. . . minutes will dwindle if he continues to not show up offensively.

Howard: Deserved to lose his starting role. . . Nice bounce-back game tonight in hitting a few key shots. . . doesn't seem fully recovered from injuries.

Padgett: I can't justify playing him over Cleare or Mitchell at this point. . . his PT will also go down.

MD - Duke Comments

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OK. Sorry for the delay in posting to this blog. No excuses other than bad funding.

NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 0.6%
NIT Tournament Likelihood: 57%

- I read earlier today that Lefty wasn't happy with the decision to put Gary Williams' name on the court - saying it was a "disservice to Lucas, Elmore, Branch, etc." Hold on a second:

1. Why wasn't Len Bias included in that statement?
2. Gary's name absolutely belongs on the court.
3. Bob Wade thinks it is a disservice to Rudy Archer and Tony Massenburg.

- I watched Gary Williams' first game as an announcer on the Big Ten network two weeks ago - paired with Gus Johnson. Very solid performance.

- Why did it take until 2 minutes elapsed in the second half for Shulman and Knight to realize that Stoglin was left-handed? Nothing like getting complemented three times for using your strong hand. Knight's commentary tonight was less than stellar.

- Most Surprising Player: James Padgett. The stats do not show the whole story. He is averaging 9 and 6. But, when you watch him this year versus his first two years, the difference is amazing. He has slowed down his game. Mixed in a drop step. Improved his shooting. Very impressive development in his game.

- Stoglin: Needs to shoot more. A lot more. Having a very solid season. It is his team. Need more effort on defense. Not sure what happened tonight at the FT line.

- Howard: Needs to shoot less. A lot less. He is at his best when driving and dishing. Does not have the ball-handling skills to be fully effective at the point.

- Len: There was an article three weeks ago stating that he would be a lottery pick in June. Not sure what that writer was smoking. His game has significantly regressed over the past month - before the injury against Temple. He is at his worst when he stands 20 feet from the basket hoping to get an open look. If MD is going to make a run this year, he needs to develop a low-post game and learn how to stay on the floor on defense to not pick-up cheap fouls. Turgeon has to put him back in the starting line-up. The kid needs minutes.

- Turgeon: Good hire. Tonight, he basically decided that he didn't want Duke beating MD from the three-point line and took his chances going man-up on Mason Plumlee inside. Not a bad idea. It worked for 30 minutes. Plumlee played the game of his life - McHale-like on the block at times. Not sure why the help-side defense was so bad all night. It turned into a lay-up drill during the second-half when Coach K pulled everyone above the FT line.

As for the long-term situation, you have to wonder about the following scenario. MD does very well over the next three years (going to the tournament each year; going to the elite 8 in 2014; Dalonte Hill brings in key recruits and buys a breathalyzer; etc.). Then, Bill Self has a couple more early unexpected tournament exits. Then, a Turgeon presser saying that Kansas was the only job he would take over staying at MD as he departs in a U-Haul for Lawrence.

- Mosley: Bizarre sequence tonight when he pulled up for a top of the key three-pointer on a fast break off the dribble. Having a decent season overall. Gets a ton of his shots blocked.

- Pankey: I would like to buy stock in his game. Fun to watch. All-ACC by his senior year.

- Faust: Not a good shooter. Takes bad shots. Needs to realize that he is at his best when he is slashing to the hoop and stop relying on his outside game.

- Parker: Should get more playing time.

- Weijs: Should get less playing time.