NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 3.7%
NIT Likelihood: 73%
Jake Layman Stats: 1 for 8 floor (including 0 for 6 from three). . . 1 board (hard not to walk into one when you play 26 minutes - second highest on the team to Wells' 33). . . Not much more to be said.
Howard: 0 for 4 floor. . . zero points. . . 8 minutes of PT was 8 minutes too many.
Len: 13 and 9. . .fouled out in 23 minutes. No blocks. Actually saw him take a shot not fading away from the basket.
Faust: Made 4 of 5 shots. . . had six turnovers because he played out of position at PG due to Turgeon's insistence on watching Layman play and launch ill-advised threes.
GT had 22 assists on 26 FGs. Crazy stat.
OK. Enough with the negativity. Let's talk next year.
Evan Smotrycz. Remember that name. He will be MD's best player next year. 6'9, 230, can fill it from three.
Next year's staring line-up:
PG: Allen / Peters sharing minutes
Mitchell will be the first off the bench.
Layman will be the seventh man.
Dodd will be next.
Maybe Howard will re-discover his game.
Odds on either Faust or Layman transferring: 50/50.
Monday, February 25, 2013
7 Random Thoughts on the 2012-2013 Terps:1. Alex Len: He is averaging 12 and 8 with 2 blocks per game. Seems OK statistically with 54% from the floor and 68% at the line. However, there is much more beyond the numbers. He disappears from games. . . frequently. He has an uncanny ability to catch the ball on the post with his back to the basket, frantically dribble back out to the three-point line, panic, and lose the ball for a break-away on the other end. He is averaging 8 shot attempts per game. He should be taking 15+. Maybe he doesn't like playing with his back to the basket so much. Put him at the free throw line more often. Bring back the Gary Williams Flex and let him run the baseline screens. Do something different. Some of that has to go on Turgeon. He plays only 26 minutes per game; most of the time not due to foul trouble. Somehow, DraftExpress still has him at #5 overall in June. NBADraft.net has him at #8. Both of those sites must not be watching many ACC games this year. No doubt that he will declare within a week of the end of the season. No doubt that I will "take the under" on his odds for success in the NBA.
2. NCAA Tournament Likelihood: 42%. 19 and 8 overall. RPI of 65. Their third-best win is Stony Brook. Crazy. Average RPI from 19 wins is 185. 13 - 1 doesn't count for much now. Significantly underachieved. 3 and 7 against teams with a two-digit RPI. KenPom has MD at #59 overall (46th best defense; 94th best offense). Jay Bilas has MD at #44.
Three Paths to the Dance:
A. Win @ GT, @ WF, UNC, @ UVA (finish at 11 - 7; 23 and 8); can lose first round game in ACC tournament and still get in (as long as it is close).
B. Win three of final four (finish at 10 - 8; 22 - 9); must win first game in ACC tournament and stay very competitive on Saturday.
C. Win ACC Tournament.
3. Mark Turgeon Job Security: Lukewarm. Guaranteed to be back for third year - for which making the tournament would be a requirement to be back for a fourth. My critique this year:
A. Way too many line-up changes. Pick your best five. Stick with it. I can help with that: Allen, Faust, Wells, Padgett, and Len.
B. Layman plays too much. Aronhalt needs more playing time.
C. He has Len for only five more games (worst-case). Feed him. Give him 15 to 20 looks a game and let's see what happens. Go inside-out with Len and Aronhalt. Allen, Faust, and Wells can draw and dish to him.
D. Faust and Padgett need to play more. Layman and Cleare need to play less.
E. Ten man rotations don't work. I can solve that. Howard sits. That leaves nine. Give Cleare five minutes per game. That leaves eight. Give Layman 10 minutes. Give Aronhalt and Mitchell between 15 and 20 each.
4. Jake Layman: Shooting 32% from distance. Not living up to the billing. His misses are lucky to draw iron. Looking forward to seeing him make a three and not having a facial expression like he just won the lottery.
5. Dez Wells: 29% from distance after making 38% at Xavier last year. Ease up on the trigger finger. Go back to slashing and drawing contact.
6. Charles Mitchell: 6'8. I don't think he can dunk. Excellent footwork. Solid on the offensive glass. Defensive liability.
7. Aronhalt: Has to be wondering why he only played nine minutes against Clemson after scoring 26 at BC. That makes two of us.