MD - NC State Comments

RPI: 51
NCAA Tournament Odds: 70%
Vasquez in an NBA Uniform Next Year Odds: 35%

This team has shown steady improvement over the past two weeks.

Vasquez has been very solid since early December. Tucker seems to be the X-factor. Vinnie Johnson-like. I am still not sure why Bowie can't get more time on the court. He is a huge defensive upgrade and has the ability to penetrate and create opportunities. Jordan Williams has also steadily improved. I am still not sure if he has a double-digit vertical. I would like to see Padget get more minutes. Hayes still needs to shoot more. Milbourne has played very well. Gregory fills his role nicely. Mosley continues to surprise on the boards and doesn't take bad shots.

First place in the ACC means nothing after four games. The FSU win was their only win over a team with an RPI south of 86. They are 3 - 1 in the ACC and I think it will take ten wins (20 overall) to get into the tournament. That would mean 10 - 6 in the regular season (to get a lock invite); or, 9 - 7 with one ACC tournament win.

Here are the remaining 12 games; location and RPI shown below:

Miami (H) - 99
Clemson (A) - 43
FSU (A) - 47
UNC (H) - 70
UVA (H) - 93
Duke (A) - 3
NC State (A) - 86
Georgia Tech (H) - 28
Clemson (H) - 43
VT (A) - 72
Duke (H) - 3
UVA (A) - 93

It looks like must wins are Miami (H), UVA (H), and NC State (A).

The only sure losses appear to be at Clemson and at Duke.

That means that they must win four of the remaining seven.

I am predicting 9 - 7 in the ACC with an ACC Tournament finals appearance to lock up the NCAA bid (7 seed).

Losses thus far (with RPIs):

- Cincy (48)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Villanova (4)
- William and Mary (44)
- Wake Forest (21)

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12214 - RPIs referenced from www.realtimerpi.com