- NCAA Tournament Bid likelihood: 40%
- Vasquez in an NBA uniform next year likelihood: 7%
OK. It is time to say what needs to be said. . . This is no longer Greivis' team. We are eight games into the season. Three consecutive bad games is a funk; seven out of eight games is clear evidence of an erosion in skills (hippmorgaritis).
Let's look at the Greivis' numbers over the past four games (ignoring the first four against weak competition; although Indiana comes very close to fitting that description):
- 4.5 turnovers per game (just above the 4.4 rate that led the country two years ago; it was 2.8 last year)
- 18 of 53 from the field (34%)
- 5 for 18 from distance (28%)
- 3.5 boards per game
- 5.3 assists per game
- 18 points per game
OK; it is tough to call 18-5-3 an erosion in skills. However, it is not an "efficient" 18 ppg; it is a forced 18 ppg.
On the bright side, the team learned a lot tonight about Sean Mosley. 26 points. . . 3 of 4 from distance (he had hit 8 in his 42 career games prior to tonight). . . . 11 of 14 from the floor. His game has significantly improved over last year.
While I still don't think Jordan Williams has a double-digit vertical, I do think that I may need to retract a few of my comments in my earlier post. He played extremely well. 19 and 12. He even made 9 of 13 from the line (after entering the game hitting 10 of 25 for the season). Nothing like a 9 for 13 performance to get you back to .500 for the season.
Hayes took 13 shots and made six. He hit five of his nine three-point attempts. 4 assists and two turn-overs. Very solid game. 13 shots needs to be the minimum we see from him going forward. He even drew a foul on a drive tonight. He is money at the line.
Cliff Tucker did not play well.
Milbourne had his worst game of the season.
It is going to be hard to find minutes for Adrian Bowie. He doesn't seem like the type of player that will be productive in limited minutes.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
MD - Indiana Comments
- I could be wrong. . . but, I think Choi is sporting a women's bouffant hair-cut.
- Tonight was a must win. Indiana is horrible. The line was MD by five; should have covered more easily.
- At this point, the only positive I can think of when describing Jordan Williams is that he is tall. It is a matter of time before Padgett gets more playing time. Padgett has upside potential due to his athleticism. Williams is slow and appears to have a single-digit vertical.
- Vasquez's shot selection remains suspect. With tonight's 4 - 14, he is now 33% for the year - 26% from distance. How about a few more passes and a few less forces?
- There has to be a way to get Bowie more minutes. Give him Choi's eight minutes and move Mosley to the four when Milbourne is out. Choi should not be playing division 1 basketball.
- Milbourne and Mosley played very well tonight.
- Tonight was a must win. Indiana is horrible. The line was MD by five; should have covered more easily.
- At this point, the only positive I can think of when describing Jordan Williams is that he is tall. It is a matter of time before Padgett gets more playing time. Padgett has upside potential due to his athleticism. Williams is slow and appears to have a single-digit vertical.
- Vasquez's shot selection remains suspect. With tonight's 4 - 14, he is now 33% for the year - 26% from distance. How about a few more passes and a few less forces?
- There has to be a way to get Bowie more minutes. Give him Choi's eight minutes and move Mosley to the four when Milbourne is out. Choi should not be playing division 1 basketball.
- Milbourne and Mosley played very well tonight.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
2009 - 2010 Opening Comments
Here are a few opening comments after the Maui tournament:
- Not much of an interior defensive presence; a zone can hide this deficiency - however, MD is less than stellar in defending the three in their zone defense. This will be a challenge throughout the year.
- Chances at making the tournament: less than 50%.
- Chances that Vasquez declares for the draft and ends up in Europe: 75%
=====
Vasquez: Showed signs of regaining his shooting touch in the second half of the Wisconsin game. . . showed signs of senior season Exreehippaitis (aka Terencemorrisaitis and Travisgarrisonaitis) through the first five games. . . we need less of Vasquez from the perimeter and more of Vasquez slashing and kicking out to Hayes and Tucker. . . his shot selection has somehow worsened over last year.
Padgett: I like what I see so far. . . nice drop step. . . strong game inside. . . albeit, he is lost at the free throw line (3 for 12).
Williams: Soft. . . what else can you say when you see Wisconsin's center run straight at him on a one on one break and go right by him for a lay-up. . . plays smaller than he is. . . 5 for 14 from the line in Maui. . . not sure how he scored 38 ppg last year in high school.
Hayes: I have been saying it for three years and will continue to say it in his fourth year; he needs to shoot more. . . a lot more. . . catch and shoot threes; not catch, dribble laterally, and shoot. . . not a great passer. . . needs to learn how to drive and draw fouls. . . disappears during games for long stretches. . . very solid game against Wisconsin.
Milbourne: Steady. . . pure jump shot. . . playing out of position on defense - exposed by Wisconsin inside. . . ACC power forwards will be circling the dates when they play MD on the calendar.
Mosley: Best player on the team through six games. . . trash collector on offense. . . nice touch on the fade away. . . great rebounder for his size; does damage on the offensive glass and creates space on his put-backs.
Bowie: Regression. . . tentative. . . needs more minutes. . . quickest player on the team. . . great slasher.
Tucker: Happiest person on the team when it was announced that Lance Stephenson was no longer being recruited. . . tweener without a true position.
Gregory: I am not sure he is that much better than Padgett. . . need him back just for depth.
- Not much of an interior defensive presence; a zone can hide this deficiency - however, MD is less than stellar in defending the three in their zone defense. This will be a challenge throughout the year.
- Chances at making the tournament: less than 50%.
- Chances that Vasquez declares for the draft and ends up in Europe: 75%
=====
Vasquez: Showed signs of regaining his shooting touch in the second half of the Wisconsin game. . . showed signs of senior season Exreehippaitis (aka Terencemorrisaitis and Travisgarrisonaitis) through the first five games. . . we need less of Vasquez from the perimeter and more of Vasquez slashing and kicking out to Hayes and Tucker. . . his shot selection has somehow worsened over last year.
Padgett: I like what I see so far. . . nice drop step. . . strong game inside. . . albeit, he is lost at the free throw line (3 for 12).
Williams: Soft. . . what else can you say when you see Wisconsin's center run straight at him on a one on one break and go right by him for a lay-up. . . plays smaller than he is. . . 5 for 14 from the line in Maui. . . not sure how he scored 38 ppg last year in high school.
Hayes: I have been saying it for three years and will continue to say it in his fourth year; he needs to shoot more. . . a lot more. . . catch and shoot threes; not catch, dribble laterally, and shoot. . . not a great passer. . . needs to learn how to drive and draw fouls. . . disappears during games for long stretches. . . very solid game against Wisconsin.
Milbourne: Steady. . . pure jump shot. . . playing out of position on defense - exposed by Wisconsin inside. . . ACC power forwards will be circling the dates when they play MD on the calendar.
Mosley: Best player on the team through six games. . . trash collector on offense. . . nice touch on the fade away. . . great rebounder for his size; does damage on the offensive glass and creates space on his put-backs.
Bowie: Regression. . . tentative. . . needs more minutes. . . quickest player on the team. . . great slasher.
Tucker: Happiest person on the team when it was announced that Lance Stephenson was no longer being recruited. . . tweener without a true position.
Gregory: I am not sure he is that much better than Padgett. . . need him back just for depth.
Monday, June 29, 2009
2009 NBA Draft Review
Here are a few comments from last week's draft:
1. NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver must have a running clock in his office counting off the hours each year until the draft. I don't think that there is anyone else who could show that kind of enthusiasm for the second round.
2. Johnny Flynn introduced us to a new region of the US that gets very little publicity stating that the Syracuse - UCONN overtime game allowed both the "mid coast" and west coast to see Big East basketball. Geography is tougher than you think.
3. Sure sign that you are not headed for a long NBA career. . . when Adam Silver announces your name and then says, ". . . who is ACTUALLY here with us tonight." The way he emphasizes "actually" is his way of saying have a nice flight back to Europe.
4. Wing spans were mentioned more during the draft than ever before. Bilas is a big believer in using wing span as a predictor of NBA success. I am waiting for the first under six foot guard to have a wing span over seven feet. It is a matter of time.
5. Adam Silver announced the Wizards trade of Jermaine Taylor to the Rockets for cash. He had the look of someone saying, "The Wizards, being the pathetic franchise that they are, are actually trading their early second round pick for money!" This was the first of three separate moves made by the Rockets in picking up second round picks for cash.
6. Tyreke Evans will be a better pro than James Harden.
7. The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to have spent about five minutes preparing for the draft. Why draft Rubio if you are not absolutely certain he would sign? Their president (David Kahn) called him "transformational". I call him "not playing in Minnesota".
8. Curry will be a better pro than Flynn.
9. Glad to see that David Stern finally gave up on hyping the WNBA. He didn't mention the WNBA during this year's draft for the first time since its inception.
10. Toronto, Milwaukee, and New Jersey made a mistake by not selecting Gerald Henderson.
11. Sam Young (Mem) and Dujuan Blair (SA) went at 36 and 37 in the draft. Every draft ranking had them much higher. Blair is a steal. I doubt Young's head fake will have much success in the NBA.
12. The Lakers will regret taking the wrong Patrick (Beverley; instead of Mills). Mills will be an NBA starter within three years. The Lakers must have realized this 30 minutes later when they traded Beverley to Miami. Mills will have a better career than Collison (who was selected at 21 to the Hornets). Mills made a huge financial mistake by not returning to St. Mary's.
13. Doris Burke should take over for Stuart Scott next year. Scott adds nothing to the telecast other than crooked glasses. Doris Burke remains the most underrated announcer in sports.
14. San Antonio got a steal with Jack McClinton as the 51st pick. Adding Richard Jefferson, Blair, and McClinton makes San Antonio the second best team in the West.
15. Denver made a great trade in picking up Ty Lawson; his overall game significantly improved last year.
16. Taylor Griffin should not have been selected. Second year in a row that Phoenix made a bad pick by taking a brother of a star player (Robin Lopez).
17. Grevis Vasquez will be a lottery pick in next year's draft.
18. So will Manny Harris.
19. The moves made by Orlando (Vince Carter) and Cleveland (Shaq) put them significantly ahead of all other teams in the East. Ryan Anderson (also included in the Carter trade) will contribute next year for the Magic.
20. If the Warriors trade Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli for Amare Stoudamire, they will be back in the playoffs next year. If they also trade Maggette for a big man, they will make it to the second round.
1. NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver must have a running clock in his office counting off the hours each year until the draft. I don't think that there is anyone else who could show that kind of enthusiasm for the second round.
2. Johnny Flynn introduced us to a new region of the US that gets very little publicity stating that the Syracuse - UCONN overtime game allowed both the "mid coast" and west coast to see Big East basketball. Geography is tougher than you think.
3. Sure sign that you are not headed for a long NBA career. . . when Adam Silver announces your name and then says, ". . . who is ACTUALLY here with us tonight." The way he emphasizes "actually" is his way of saying have a nice flight back to Europe.
4. Wing spans were mentioned more during the draft than ever before. Bilas is a big believer in using wing span as a predictor of NBA success. I am waiting for the first under six foot guard to have a wing span over seven feet. It is a matter of time.
5. Adam Silver announced the Wizards trade of Jermaine Taylor to the Rockets for cash. He had the look of someone saying, "The Wizards, being the pathetic franchise that they are, are actually trading their early second round pick for money!" This was the first of three separate moves made by the Rockets in picking up second round picks for cash.
6. Tyreke Evans will be a better pro than James Harden.
7. The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to have spent about five minutes preparing for the draft. Why draft Rubio if you are not absolutely certain he would sign? Their president (David Kahn) called him "transformational". I call him "not playing in Minnesota".
8. Curry will be a better pro than Flynn.
9. Glad to see that David Stern finally gave up on hyping the WNBA. He didn't mention the WNBA during this year's draft for the first time since its inception.
10. Toronto, Milwaukee, and New Jersey made a mistake by not selecting Gerald Henderson.
11. Sam Young (Mem) and Dujuan Blair (SA) went at 36 and 37 in the draft. Every draft ranking had them much higher. Blair is a steal. I doubt Young's head fake will have much success in the NBA.
12. The Lakers will regret taking the wrong Patrick (Beverley; instead of Mills). Mills will be an NBA starter within three years. The Lakers must have realized this 30 minutes later when they traded Beverley to Miami. Mills will have a better career than Collison (who was selected at 21 to the Hornets). Mills made a huge financial mistake by not returning to St. Mary's.
13. Doris Burke should take over for Stuart Scott next year. Scott adds nothing to the telecast other than crooked glasses. Doris Burke remains the most underrated announcer in sports.
14. San Antonio got a steal with Jack McClinton as the 51st pick. Adding Richard Jefferson, Blair, and McClinton makes San Antonio the second best team in the West.
15. Denver made a great trade in picking up Ty Lawson; his overall game significantly improved last year.
16. Taylor Griffin should not have been selected. Second year in a row that Phoenix made a bad pick by taking a brother of a star player (Robin Lopez).
17. Grevis Vasquez will be a lottery pick in next year's draft.
18. So will Manny Harris.
19. The moves made by Orlando (Vince Carter) and Cleveland (Shaq) put them significantly ahead of all other teams in the East. Ryan Anderson (also included in the Carter trade) will contribute next year for the Magic.
20. If the Warriors trade Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli for Amare Stoudamire, they will be back in the playoffs next year. If they also trade Maggette for a big man, they will make it to the second round.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
MD - Miami Notes
Brutal.
Up by 17 with just over 12 minutes left, everyone on the MD bench had to be having flashbacks to the Clemson game last March when MD blew a 20 point lead in the final ten minutes. GW was deliberate with the offense from the 12 minute mark to the five minute mark when Miami cut it to five. You could sense that MD wanted to bleed the clock; I can't fault the strategy. Bowie was able to bail MD out on offense on two separate occasions during that stretch and Miami got hot from distance - red hot on decent defense.
Jack McClinton has murdered Maryland for four straight years. How do you let that guy get an open look on that last shot? Everybody in the gym knew that he was going to run off two picks on that curl; not sure why Neal didn't hedge. If he does switch, Collins gets the ball on the block and gets fouled. Much better scenario.
There were bright spots to come out of this game. First and foremost, watching Adrian freakin' Bowie turn into Isiah Thomas. He was unstoppable (23 pts, 5 boards, 3 assists, and 2 steals). It took Miami 35 minutes to figure out he was left-handed. Slasher.
Vasquez played very well (15 pts, 6 assists, 5 boards, and 2 steals). He had two very good looks in the final seconds and rimmed out on both shots. One of the keys to MD's start was Vasquez penetrating and kicking out for open looks. He focused on getting others involved early. He didn't attempt a FT (leading the nation at 94% with 35 in a row).
Milbourne was solid (8 pts, 7 boards, 4 huge blocks, and a steal). He was signficantly undersized against Miami's front line and was able to disrupt their inside game.
I am not sure why Hayes went to sleep after starting off with five early points. He ended up taking only four shots in 27 minutes. That may be the most significant stat of the game. MD will not win when he is not part of the offense. He needs to figure out how to draw fouls on penetration when he is not getting open shots.
Dave Neal played 25 minutes (1 of 6 from the floor). We could have used Burney in this game - we need him back soon.
When Mosley missed that dunk in the first-half, you had to wonder if those two points would matter at the end. He played 19 minutes and didn't do much statistically. He is still trying to figure out how to score on the college level.
Dupree looks lost out there - absolutely no confidence in his game. His four-foot wide-open hook shot missed by two feet. My remedy? Let Dupree play a few games in the UM intramural league to remember how to dominate a game. Either that or make it a policy that GW is only allowed to scream at him once every ten minutes.
kenpom note: MD is #318 in D1 in the category FTA/FGA (0.29). This underscores MD's problems inside. As a reference, Wake is #8 at 0.49. Tonight: 6 FTA and 57 FGA (0.11).
14 Games remain in the regular season. 12 - 4 (1 - 1) right now.
Sure wins: UVA-H, BC-H, MIA-H, and VT-H
Key games: FSU-A, GT-A, Duke-H, NCST-A, and UVA-A
Sure losses: Duke-A, UNC-A, Clem-A, UNC-H, and WF-H
The absolute best-case scenario is 20 - 10 (9 - 7). Likelihood: 5%.
Next best scenario 19 - 11 (8 - 8). Likelihood: 25%.
18 - 12 (7 - 9): Likelihood: 50%
17 - 13 (6 - 10): Likelihood: 15%
16 - 14 (5 - 11): Likelihood: 5%
Overall Likelihood of making the Tournament: Coin Flip.
Why do I have the feeling that the Morgan State game will ultimately be a killer?
Up by 17 with just over 12 minutes left, everyone on the MD bench had to be having flashbacks to the Clemson game last March when MD blew a 20 point lead in the final ten minutes. GW was deliberate with the offense from the 12 minute mark to the five minute mark when Miami cut it to five. You could sense that MD wanted to bleed the clock; I can't fault the strategy. Bowie was able to bail MD out on offense on two separate occasions during that stretch and Miami got hot from distance - red hot on decent defense.
Jack McClinton has murdered Maryland for four straight years. How do you let that guy get an open look on that last shot? Everybody in the gym knew that he was going to run off two picks on that curl; not sure why Neal didn't hedge. If he does switch, Collins gets the ball on the block and gets fouled. Much better scenario.
There were bright spots to come out of this game. First and foremost, watching Adrian freakin' Bowie turn into Isiah Thomas. He was unstoppable (23 pts, 5 boards, 3 assists, and 2 steals). It took Miami 35 minutes to figure out he was left-handed. Slasher.
Vasquez played very well (15 pts, 6 assists, 5 boards, and 2 steals). He had two very good looks in the final seconds and rimmed out on both shots. One of the keys to MD's start was Vasquez penetrating and kicking out for open looks. He focused on getting others involved early. He didn't attempt a FT (leading the nation at 94% with 35 in a row).
Milbourne was solid (8 pts, 7 boards, 4 huge blocks, and a steal). He was signficantly undersized against Miami's front line and was able to disrupt their inside game.
I am not sure why Hayes went to sleep after starting off with five early points. He ended up taking only four shots in 27 minutes. That may be the most significant stat of the game. MD will not win when he is not part of the offense. He needs to figure out how to draw fouls on penetration when he is not getting open shots.
Dave Neal played 25 minutes (1 of 6 from the floor). We could have used Burney in this game - we need him back soon.
When Mosley missed that dunk in the first-half, you had to wonder if those two points would matter at the end. He played 19 minutes and didn't do much statistically. He is still trying to figure out how to score on the college level.
Dupree looks lost out there - absolutely no confidence in his game. His four-foot wide-open hook shot missed by two feet. My remedy? Let Dupree play a few games in the UM intramural league to remember how to dominate a game. Either that or make it a policy that GW is only allowed to scream at him once every ten minutes.
kenpom note: MD is #318 in D1 in the category FTA/FGA (0.29). This underscores MD's problems inside. As a reference, Wake is #8 at 0.49. Tonight: 6 FTA and 57 FGA (0.11).
14 Games remain in the regular season. 12 - 4 (1 - 1) right now.
Sure wins: UVA-H, BC-H, MIA-H, and VT-H
Key games: FSU-A, GT-A, Duke-H, NCST-A, and UVA-A
Sure losses: Duke-A, UNC-A, Clem-A, UNC-H, and WF-H
The absolute best-case scenario is 20 - 10 (9 - 7). Likelihood: 5%.
Next best scenario 19 - 11 (8 - 8). Likelihood: 25%.
18 - 12 (7 - 9): Likelihood: 50%
17 - 13 (6 - 10): Likelihood: 15%
16 - 14 (5 - 11): Likelihood: 5%
Overall Likelihood of making the Tournament: Coin Flip.
Why do I have the feeling that the Morgan State game will ultimately be a killer?
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