Sunday, March 7, 2010

Regular Season Wrap-Up



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RPI: 17

Projected Seed Scenarios:
--> 23 - 8 (first-round ACC loss): 7 seed
--> 24 - 8 (second-round ACC loss): 6 seed
--> 25 - 8 (championship ACC loss): 4 seed
--> 26 - 7 (ACC Tournament Champs): 3 seed

Entering ACC play, expectations were basically just make the tournament. Now, everything has been slotted up; the final words on the season will be:

- First round NCAA loss: Huge disappointment
- Second round NCAA loss: Disappointing season
- Sweet Sixteen loss: This is the expectation; anything beyond is house money.
- Elite Eight loss: Great season.
- Final Four Appearance: Start campaigning for Gary Williams to be elected into the Hall of Fame immediately. Vasquez will be a top five player in the history of the program.

I can't see any possibility of winning a Final Four game. However, I can see a Final Four appearance as a viable outcome (albeit small; 3% likelihood).

There is no way Vasquez doesn't get ACC POY after the events of the past five days. Clutch sequence when the UVA game was getting out of control - Vasquez nailed three consecutive three-pointers to keep MD in the game until the Tony Bennett meltdown. Speaking of which, I agreed with his first complaint (ref never should have called a travel when there was no advantage gained given the game situation). However, his second complaint (which set off Mount Bennett), was a clear block. Nice way to take the game away from your seniors.

Just checked the two preeminent mock NBA draft sites:

DraftExpress.com: Vasquez is not projected among the top 60 (undrafted status).
NBADraft.net: They have Vasquez going #29 in round 1 to Memphis.

I am not sure why Milbourne is still listed on NBADraft.net at #51. They must not have watched the past six games (33% FG, 6 ppg, 4 rpg). He is completely lost mentally. Zero confidence in what once was perhaps the best mid-range game in the ACC. When he is not taking the fifteen-foot jumper, it is debatable if MD is better off with him seeing reduced minutes (if they can afford to go with a smaller line-up; which will not be the case against GT on Friday night).

It is a tribute to Roy Williams that it is a foregone conclusion that UNC will get hammered on Thursday night. It is tough to find a poorer performance by a more highly rated collection of players coming out of high school. They have been "coached down".

It is time to give Bowie more minutes; lots more. He seems to have found his game and is a huge upgrade defensively whenever he is on the court.

Gary Williams will win ACC coach of the year. Only debate is who will finish second.

I am not sure why people are mentioning Jordan Williams as ACC rookie of the year. Favors should be the unanimous selection.

Here are the ACC players in the mock drafts (with overall selection projections; DraftExpress first; then NBADraft.net):

- Favors - GT (3 | 6)
- Aminu - WF (5 | 8)
- Davis - UNC (7 | not listed)
- Alabi - FSU (16 | 26)
- Lawal - GT (30 | 17)
- Singler - Duke (34)
- Booker - Clem (39 | 35)
- Thompson - UNC (48 | 58)
- Collins - Mia (58 | 33)
- Scheyer - Duke (59 | not listed)
- Vasquez (not listed | 29)
- Milbourne (not listed | 51)

Hold on. The fact that Scheyer is included on the DraftExpress list is a clear indication that the author is a Duke grad. There is no freakin' way Scheyer gets selected in June. That explains the omission of Vasquez.

I still have Vasquez's odds at being in an NBA uniform all next year at 85%.

I highly recommend Bill Simmons' Book on Basketball - absolute must read. In his 1974 season review, he wrote about Moses Malone and brought up his 1974 decision to change his mind on Maryland and go to the ABA. Imagine Malone playing with Lucas, Davis, Gibson, Boston, Sheppard, etc. Imagine Malone playing with any four guys on a college level as a senior. A final four appearance would have been a lock. Worst turn of events to happen to Lefty prior to 1986.

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3 comments:

Unknown said...

Great stuff as always. Interesting seed projection scenarios. I can't imagine Maryland finishing first place in regular season ACC and getting a 7 seed even if they lost in the first round of their conference tourney. Of course, a loss to Georgia Tech would be more palatable than to UNC if they somehow scraped together a win in the first round. The idea of Vazquez not getting drafted seems silly to me. The guy has proven himself at a very high level and I'd take him in a heartbeat over some of these great potential guys who haven't proven anything.

Unknown said...

Very nice season wrap-up, obviously a lot of thought went into these comments.

Unknown said...

By far, the best Maryland Terps basketball blog I have ever read! I need to see more regular updates. Keep up the great work!!!