NIT Comments

NCAA Tournament Probability: 62%
Predicted number of future NBA players on roster: Zero

Good start to the season. Very competitive losses to #4 Pitt (because of missed FTs) and #16 ILL (because of poor perimeter defense). #37 overall ranking seems right.

It is not "if" but "when" Stoglin moves into the starting PG position and Bowie becomes the sixth man. I think it will happen in mid December.

This team will struggle with turn-overs and three-point shooting all year. Add rebounding when (not if) Williams gets into foul trouble. The team will excel with open-court, fast-paced tempo that is triggered by the full-court press. In other words, a typical GW team. I think the FT shooting issue will get fixed.

Two games with Bobby Knight's commentary was very solid overall. He had a few moments when you had to question his thinking; most notably, he went into a long explanation as to why it is a good idea to make the first and miss the second FT intentionally when you are up by 2 with five seconds left on the clock. Stupid. Last time I checked, it is tough to hit a four-pointer.

He also went a bit overboard on "counting" dribbles. He said Stoglin bounced it 19 times "because I counted" on one possession. I used the DVR to check and it was 13.

Here are a few comments:

- Williams: Best player and clearly the most important player on the team. . . averaging 19 and 12 through five games. . . loss of 20 lbs allows for throwdowns at the rack instead of lay-ins. . . polished inside game. . . still gets a lot of shots blocked. . . could use a lesson from Baxter on using the rim to prevent that from happening. . . only two blocked shots in five games. . . still commits bad fouls. . . has tendency to use left arm to hook opponent on baseline moves. . . will be on the bench with foul trouble quite a bit this season. . . FT shooting will be a problem.

- Tucker: Bobby Knight's favorite player. . . great in the open floor. . . showed a nice mid-range game from the FT area. . . averaging 15, 4 boards, and 3 assists thus far. . . can disappear for long stretches when games slow down.

- Mosley: Averaging 9, 4 boards, and 3 assists. . . seems to get shorter each year. . . 1 for 9 from distance. . . mid-range game seems off compared to last year. . . did I mention that he is under-sized? . . . great overall knowledge of the game. . . I am confident that this is just an early season funk. . . if not, MD is in serious trouble.

- Bowie: 18 assists and 17 turn-overs thus far. . . he is a two that is being disguised as a one. . . not a creator in the half-court set. . . great in the open court. . . defense goes with his offense. . . not able to get open looks for three when he is playing the point. . . shot 41% from distance last year. . . with the lack of other options, MD will need him to get 3 or 4 looks from distance per game.

- Gregory: Great shot blocker. . . plays bigger than his height. . . good catch and shoot mid-range game thus far. . . not a great rebounder. . . good FT shooter who should find a way to play with his back to the basket on offense so that he can get to the line more often.

- Stoglin: Pure scorer. . . best shooter on the team. . . averaging 0.3 assists per game over the last three. . . will not get into the starting line-up until that stat gets fixed. . . easy to understand how he was the second all-time leading scorer in AZ.

Howard: Very impressive against Charleston. . . not so much in the last three games. . . I can't see him playing the point for long stretches.

Weijs: I like what I see so far in limited minutes. . . goes after blocked shots. . . active. . . can finish on the offensive end. . . still far too weak to justify double-digit minutes per game.

Padgett: 4 for 14 at the FT line so far. . . 28.6%. . . has no offensive game beyond dunks off of feeds. . . decent on the defensive end. . . will commit a lot of fouls.

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